Author Bradley Schurman: Demographic Disruption – How an Aging Society Will Change Everything

October 5, 2023

The Empire Club of Canada Presents

Author Bradley Schurman: Demographic Disruption - How an Aging Society Will Change Everything

Chairman: Sal Rabbani, President, Board of Directors, Empire Club of Canada

Head Table Guests
[Information coming soon]

Moderator
Kelly Jackson, Past President, Board of Directors, the Empire Club of Canada

Distinguished Guest Speakers
Bradley Shurman, Author, "The Super Age: Decoding Our Demographic Destiny"
Ginger Grant, Dean of Research and Innovation, Humber College

Introduction
It is a great honour for me to be here at the Empire Club of Canada today, which is arguably the most famous and historically relevant speaker’s podium to have ever existed in Canada. It has offered its podium to such international luminaries as Winston Churchill, Ronald Reagan, Audrey Hepburn, the Dalai Lama, Indira Gandhi, and closer to home, from Pierre Trudeau to Justin Trudeau; literally generations of our great nation's leaders, alongside with those of the world's top international diplomats, heads of state, and business and thought leaders.

It is a real honour and distinct privilege to be invited to speak to the Empire Club of Canada, which has been welcoming international diplomats, leaders in business, and in science, and in politics. When they stand at that podium, they speak not only to the entire country, but they can speak to the entire world.

Welcome Address by Sal Rabbani, President, Board of Directors, Empire Club of Canada
Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for the 120th season at the Empire Club of Canada. My name is Sal Rabbani, and it's an honour to stand before our esteemed community as Chair of the Board of Directors of the Empire Club of Canada.

To formally begin this afternoon, I want to acknowledge that we are gathering today on the Traditional and Treaty lands of the Mississaugas of the Credit, and the homelands of the Anishinaabeg, the Haudenosaunee, and the Wendat Peoples. We encourage everyone to learn more about the Traditional Territory on which you work and live.

At the Empire Club of Canada, we always try to go beyond just offering events, information, and networking. Our goal is to offer you perspective on topics that matter to you. This is why I'm very excited about today's event. We will talk about one of the most important transformational trends for our world. When the Empire Club of Canada was founded 120 years ago, the proportion of Canadians aged 65 years and older was 4.8 percent. Today, the percentage of Canadians 65 years and more is up four times to 19 percent, and it is expected to continue to increase rapidly, as all Baby Boomers reach retirement age in the next few years. The United Nations predicts that by twenty 2050, 25 percent of people in high income countries will be over 65 years old, which is more than three times than 1950.

We are in the midst of a profound demographic transformation. We are getting older, Canada is getting older, and the entire world is getting older. These important demographic changes will also change the fabric of our business landscape. The federal government estimated in 2023, in the budget, that 75 percent of small business owners are planning to retire in the next decade. This is huge. We have close to 1.2 million small businesses in Canada. So, this means that around 900,000 of them are going to change ownership in the next 10 years. We are looking at an incredible transfer of wealth, knowledge, and also, something that needs to be well-prepared, both on the buyers and on the seller side.

I'm sharing these stats with, with you to give you an idea of the magnitude and impact of an aging population, and how this will be one of the most profound demographic shifts in our history. Living longer is our collective achievement as humanity, but it is also our common challenge. An aging economy will impact everything. Government spending, healthcare spending, innovation, the availability of labour force, economic and business growth, housing product and service offerings. Everything. It is our duty and obligation to get the perspective we need to solve these challenges, but most importantly, to also seize the opportunities that this profound demographic shift will bring for our country, our businesses, and our future.

I'd like to thank our guests. Bradley Shurman will talk to us about how demographic changes will disrupt our futures, and also how opportunities for all of us. I'm also particularly happy to be joined today by my dear friend Kelly Jackson, Immediate Past President, Board of Directors of the Empire Club of Canada, who'll moderate today's conversation.

We accept questions from the audience for our speakers through that Q&A under the video player. If you require technical assistance, please start a conversation with our team using that chat button on the right-hand side of your screen.

The Empire Club is a not-for-profit organization, and we'd like to recognize our sponsors, who generously support the club, and make these events possible and complimentary for our online viewers to attend. Thank you to our Lead Event Sponsor, Humber College; thank you, also, to our Season Sponsors, AWS Amazon Web Services, Bruce Power, Hydro One.

I now invite Kelly Jackson and Bradley Shurman to begin our discussion on "Demographic Disruption, How an Aging Society Will Change Everything."

Kelly Jackson, Past President, Board of Directors, the Empire Club of Canada
Thanks so much, Sal. What a, what a great introduction to the topic.

Bradley Schurman, Author, "The Super Age: Decoding Our Demographic Destiny"
Yeah, I think, should we stop there?

Kelly Jackson
Yeah. And I'm really excited, Bradley, to be here with you today.

Bradley Schurman
Thanks for having me.

Kelly Jackson
Yeah, this is, I think, you know, it really, this, this idea, of course, that I think the world is waking up to. That, you know, we have across the, the developed world in many countries, you know, over many, many years, a significant decline in birth rates. And at the same time, people are living longer than ever, which is great news.

Bradley Schurman
Yeah. It's wonderful news.

Kelly Jackson
But, you know, those two trends have come together to create what you've termed the "Super Age."

Bradley Schurman
Right.

Kelly Jackson
So, can you talk first for our viewers, here, a little bit about what's this idea of the Super Age...

Bradley Schurman
Sure.

Kelly Jackson
...and giving them some context for the conversation today?

Bradley Schurman
Sure. And we can just pull up a slide, first slide, here, we can take a look at what the future looks for Canada. Looking back just a few years from now, we can see a trend line—if we click on the slide—that illustrates, eventually, a growth in the percentage of people over the age of 65 across Canada. Just a few years ago, it was 12 percent, if you can believe that. It pushed up to 18 percent last year, it's going to push up to 19 and 20 percent in the near future. Twenty percent is that point of Super Age—that's where one out of five people is over the age of 65.

And here's why it's important for Canadians to understand: we've never, ever had this percentage of older adults alive at any time in our history. And this doesn't change anytime soon. In fact, older people grow as a percentage of the total population, largely because we're not having a lot of babies.

Kelly Jackson
M'hm (affirmative)

Bradley Schurman
Our birth rates have essentially collapsed, not just here in Canada, but in the United States, across Europe, and into Asia. And you mentioned at the onset this is mostly Western challenge for developed nations. It's not just for developed nations anymore. Canada and the United States, we've taken 250 years to age since the dawn of the first Industrial Revolution. China? They've done it in 30 years, Thailand will do it in 20, India about the same amount of time. So, this is a transformation that isn't slowing down; it's in fact speeding up. And it's quite a bit like climate change. We didn't see it that much 25 years ago. But all of a sudden it's here, and we have to address it, if we're going to meet the future head on.

Kelly Jackson
Interesting. I think you brought one other slide, as well...

Bradley Schurman
Yes.

Kelly Jackson
...that maybe we can just take a look at. Just, again, as we're, we're really sort of setting that context and showing, showing this gap.

Bradley Schurman
Yeah. Sure. So, there's a gap, really, that's exists in the place here in Canada right now. And this gap is, really, one around labour. We treat workers—working-age population as it's defined by the government—as people roughly 16 to 64. Anyone over the age of 65 is considered to be retired, or at least retirement age. So. there's a bit of a mismatch that's happening here, now. So, if you were alive for the past couple of years and paid attention to the media in any way, you probably heard a number of terms, "Quiet Quitting," "The Great Recession," "Inflation." We've all heard this one, right?

Kelly Jackson
Yeah.

Bradley Schurman
Inflation is partially driven by this tightness in the labour market. And that happened because Boomers were always going to leave, but they left en masse during COVID, and they haven't really fully returned yet. We want to be able to capture these workers in the future, in order to grow our economy, and really shore up our social welfare systems.

Kelly Jackson
Yeah, I think this idea of, of, you know, capturing the talk, the knowledge, the wisdom of this group of people...

Bradley Schurman
Right.

Kelly Jackson
..is becoming more and more apparent that this is something needs real focus. And, you know, I, I did have a chance to, to read some of your book.

Bradley Schurman
Thank you.

Kelly Jackson
It was, it was great. And you know, one of the things that stood out to me is, you sort of posed this question, which was, you know, when we think about youth, and we think about how we all typically focus on the economic potential of youth, if we were just to stop doing that, it would be crippling to the economy.

Bradley Schurman
Yeah.

Kelly Jackson
And yet why, when we're talking about this group of people, which is going to be the fastest-growing demographics...

Bradley Schurman
Yeah.

Kelly Jackson
...are we dismissing?

Bradley Schurman
We are. And it's not just will be the fastest-growing demographic—it is the fastest-growing demographic. So, 65-plus is the fastest-growing demographic in total in the world. But if you want to break it down even further, the fastest-growing sub demographic of that is people over the age of 85. The second-fastest-growing sub-demographic of that people over the age of 100. So, these folks aren't going away. They're here for longer periods of time. And for those that get to 65, many of them are experiencing what we call "the new longevity." That, they're healthier, they're more active, they're more socially connected, they're more digitally literate than any other previous generation. And interestingly enough, regardless of geography, they want to work.

Kelly Jackson
M'hm (affirmative).

Bradley Schurman
But how they work is often in question. Is it a 9-to-5, 40-hour-a-week job, or 80 hour-a-week job? Maybe not necessarily—that's not everyone's cup of tea when you're young, either—but they do want to find ways to engage, either in the formal labour market, the informal labour market, perhaps in full-time work, but also in part-time work.

Kelly Jackson
So, yesterday I was in the airport, and walked by a quite a big ad for HSBC that posed the question, "Is it time to retire retirement?"

Bradley Schurman
Yeah. You know, I, I posed this question about 25 years ago, when I asked, should be we be reinventing retirement? We, I was at AARP at the time. For those of you who don't know, AARP, it's the sister, cousin of CARP. It's the largest membership organization in the world, serving the 50-plus population. And we asked, should we reinvent retirement? Because at the time, risk was being rebalanced. Risk in retirement for most of the 20th century really sat on the shoulders of government. Government took on the risk through social programs, primarily pensions, and the delivery of healthcare. But it doesn't matter where you want are in the world right now. Pensions are under this pressure, social welfare systems, healthcare is under this pressure right now. Because we're getting to a point where too many people are out of work—retired—and too few people are working. In Europe right now, there's only two people working for every person retired. That gets very expensive to manage.

Kelly Jackson
Yeah.

Bradley Schurman
So, the social welfare programs are really predicated on having a lot of young people at the bottom to fuel the few people that survive to the top. Well, if you take a look at our populations now in Canada and the United States, you'll see Boomers, Gen-X, Millennials, and Gen-Z, roughly have equal parity now. They're even, in terms of their population size. So, we have to think differently about the future. Not just rebalance, but also reinvent.

Kelly Jackson
And you, you just touched on this a little bit, too, about the affordability. Not just, I would say, from a sort of that bigger government perspective...

Bradley Schurman
Yeah.

Kelly Jackson
...or societal, you know, "Can we afford this type of structure?" but on the individual level.

Bradley Schurman
Yeah.

Kelly Jackson
...right? And I, I also saw this this week—because, you know, once you're thinking about a topic, it...

Bradley Schurman
It, it doesn't go away. It's everywhere.

Kelly Jackson
...it pops up everywhere. But so, there was an, an RBC online survey in June...

Bradley Schurman
Okay.

Kelly Jackson
...okay? Of just over 1500 Canadian adults. And 39 percent felt that, if inflation continued into 2024, it will take them longer to retire. And 21 percent said they might have to go back to work.

Bradley Schurman
Yep. And guess what? If you leave work, it's very hard to get back into it, as an older adult.

Kelly Jackson
Yeah.

Bradley Schurman
There are a lot of barriers that exist in place. Some of them very specific, systematic ones, others subliminal, it's just below the surface. Leaving work is a bad deal. It's a bad deal for the business, it's a bad deal for the government. But most importantly, it's a bad deal for us as individuals. And here's why: it immediately puts us at financial risk. In the US, you have to have at least a million dollars on hand to retire in comfort. No one has that. No one has that. But we also know that when you leave work, you start to experience some health difficulties, things speed up that shouldn't speed up. A loss of physical health, mental health, and even cognitive health, come on quite faster, when you're not engaged in work—this, of course, is particularly important for men to realize...

Kelly Jackson
Yeah.

Bradley Schurman
...because they don't have the same social networks as women. But yeah, it's not really a great deal. Also, I might add, retirement is a 20th century phenomenon. This is something we came up with during this century. It might not be the best idea, because it goes against, really, 10,000 years of human civilization, where we worked until we couldn't. We played a part in society until we couldn't. Maybe we should go back to some of that.

Kelly Jackson
Yeah.

Bradley Schurman
Because it gives us purpose. And it gives us a role and a place within our communities.

Kelly Jackson
Yeah. And I think also, probably, over that time, as well, we've seen that sort of stereotyping too, right? Of individuals who have retired as sort of being out of touch, not...

Bradley Schurman
Yeah.

Kelly Jackson
... having, not, not being relevant, not having knowledge to bring to the table. Which is absolutely untrue.

Bradley Schurman
Yeah. We call them "Greedy Geezers." And they're not just greedy geezers because they're taking from the pension system; they don't keep up with modernity. When you step away from work, you start to see a couple of things happen immediately. First of all, your interest or adoption of tech, as a whole, as a group, falls off a cliff. You might have a smartphone, but you might not know how to use it. So, when we did the COVID vaccine rollout in the States, what did we do? Well, we made sure that people over the age of 85 got access to it first. That was the decision that we made. You had to sign up for it on a mobile phone, didn't line up. But there are just these other realities that come with later life, too. If we're on a fixed income, for example, we're not buying new products, we're not buying new services. So, that, that extra contribution that we can make outside of work is buying things, staying active in the economy.

Kelly Jackson
M'hm (affirmative). Right.

Bradley Schurman
And we're taking that away from people too. Sometimes taking it away from ourselves.

Kelly Jackson
Yeah. I just want to take a moment to remind those that are watching that we would love to have your questions, and please do submit them; there should be a question box just below your viewer, on the screen, and we will try to get to as many questions as possible. I have, I have a couple more for Bradley—that's the moderator's prerogative—but will definitely be looking and keeping my eye out here on my phone to see those questions coming in. You just mentioned products...

Bradley Schurman
Yeah.

Kelly Jackson
.. right? And, and sort of this idea, too, around—for me, what's really interesting is thinking about what kind of new products are going to have to be created, or what kind of products exist today, that maybe are going to be used in different ways? And so, one of the other, sort of, things...

Bradley Schurman
Sure.

Kelly Jackson
...that jumped out from your book to me—just felt was a very great example of this—was this piece around in Japan...

Bradley Schurman
Yeah.

Kelly Jackson
...that more diapers are now produced for adults than are for children.

Bradley Schurman
Yeah.

Kelly Jackson
And that really, that for some reason, really hit me.

Bradley Schurman
Yeah. And that happened about 15 years ago.

Kelly Jackson
Yeah.

Bradley Schurman
And it's a stark statistic. It should make us all a little uncomfortable. I think it makes people a little squeamish, because we don't like to talk about decline, even though...

Kelly Jackson
Yeah.

Bradley Schurman
...it's likely gonna happen for many of us. But what it underscores is the fact that entire industries will need to change as a result of this demographic shift. They will not only need to switch the type of products they are producing, but they'll also have to shift the types of markets that they're serving. So just for a moment, here, this is not just about this whole swell of older adults, here. It's also about this contraction of younger adults, too. So, that 18-34 market segment, which we've been chasing since after the Second World War—"the youth market, before anything else, hallelujah"— that is no longer the most important marketplace. The most important marketplace in the future is the marketplace that's built on inclusion. And there are companies that are doing this already. In my book, I talk about the automakers, already thinking about how to build generationally -inclusive products. Apple, specifically, the Apple Watch, is designed with inclusion in mind. It's a beautiful product, it's a luxury item, young people can use it for gaming, older adults might be using it for health monitoring—but everyone loves to wear it, because the product that looks like you're sitting square centre in the zeitgeist.

There, of course, will be new products that come online too, make no mistake about that. But we don't know what they are yet. And oftentimes, businesses make this critical mistake. They say, "Okay, we've got this market of older adults, I'm going to design something for them." Don't do it. I'm warning you now, don't do it. Design with them. None of us have had the experience of getting to older, age—so don't have the hubris of designing for older age, without engaging older customers. And you get a win-win, if you hire these older workers in your workplace, as well as engage them as your customers.

Kelly Jackson
Can you maybe share an example or two, because you're, you've done so much research in this...

Bradley Schurman
Yep.

Kelly Jackson
... field of, of, of companies that have made accommodations or shifts...

Bradley Schurman
Yep.

Kelly Jackson
...in how they have set up their workplaces or environments, in order to be able to retain older workers.

Bradley Schurman
Yeah. And the first one in the book—really, the first globally-known example—comes from Germany.

Kelly Jackson
Okay.

Bradley Schurman
BMW, the luxury automaker. And in a small plant in a town called Dingolfing, the HR manager at the time—who's now the Chief Operating Officer, by the way, he clearly made the right decision, here—is he saw that there was a gap between the pipeline of workers that he had, and the number of workers that he had that were approaching retirement.

So, he went to these workers who were approaching retirement, he said, "Ladies, gentlemen, what can I do to make this workplace better?" They were simple innovations. "We'd like a stretching station because this work is repetitive, it's hurting our bodies." "Can you put magnifying glasses at each of the workstations? Because the print on the nuts and the bolts is quite small." "Can you put soft pads at the workstation, so we're not standing on concrete?" "Yeah. Of course we can do that." Fifty thousand dollar-investment. Immediately, worker satisfaction went up, immediately the product improved. And it proved that with these investments, there is an ROI for improving workplace conditions. Not just through ergonomics, but also because it allowed BMW to extend the working lives for these older adults. That was the one positive thing that happened.

The second positive thing that happened is that the product actually improved. We saw the product actually improved because the workers were happier. And then the third piece—which nobody expected at that time—was that younger workers became direct beneficiaries of these investments, not only because they were able to extend their working lives because they lowered the repetition on their bodies, but also, because older workers and younger workers coming together alongside, actually stimulated innovation. So, you started seeing that BMW started building innovation into their cars that younger people may not have wanted, but older people maybe needed. I think the classic case is something that we have in almost all of our cars today, which is the push-button start. It wasn't that long ago you had to stick a key into, into a socket and you had to turn it over. That's not easy for a lot of people to do. But having a push-button allows more people to have that gift of mobility that a car brings.

Kelly Jackson
M'hm (affirmative). And I think it goes back to your earlier point around, just, inclusive design.

Bradley Schurman
Yeah.

Kelly Jackson
Right? Creating a better product.

Bradley Schurman
Yeah. Well, the BMW is the starting line here. But just to put this in kind of relative terms, that was a 15,000—or 50,000 dollar-investment, rather. Just before the pandemic, Porsche built an entire plant from scratch, at the cost of one billion dollars, fully focused on ergonomics, fully focused on extending the lives of its workers. There is an ROI here, and it's big. Companies, though, don't typically move on this until the pressure is really quite significant on their workplace. And Germany is about 10 to 15 years ahead of Canada, in terms of its demographic profile. I share that, not to say, "Woe is me, poor Germany," I say, for Canadian enterprise, take a look at what they've done. Take a look at their pragmatism, lean into it, and start building it in here. Because, while Canada as a country isn't going to hit the Super Age for a couple of years, many of the, the regions within certain provinces—certainly, our rural areas—they've already reached Super Age. There are some provinces in Canada, and, and regions within provinces of Canada, where you've got 30 to 40 percent of the population over the age of 65. So, it's already here. We might, you might not see it here in Toronto. But you will see it out in the country.

Kelly Jackson
Yeah. That's a great point. And, you know, when we, we, even when we say things like in the US...

Bradley Schurman
Right.

Kelly Jackson
...or in Canada...

Bradley Schurman
Yeah.

Kelly Jackson
...you know, you know, it's easy to, to make sort of statements without putting that regional lens...

Bradley Schurman
Yeah.

Kelly Jackson
...you know, really, in unpacking those statements. And you know, we always have these conversations in Canada, right?

Bradley Schurman
Sure.

Kelly Jackson
You know, very different sort of realities, whether you're talking about the rural communities, urban, East Coast, West Coast, North. So....

Bradley Schurman
Well, I mean I, I, I live in Washington DC, just to share this point on data. Only 12 percent of our population in DC is over the age of 65. So, it's hard even for policymakers to understand what they need to do to meet the new challenge of this era. But if you go up north to Canada's neighbour, Maine, they hit the Super-Age two years ago. And there are rural state. They're the first state—and frankly, I think the first region in the world—that's actually taking on ageism as a clear and present threat to business. So, yeah, it is happening. But it's happening in smaller areas, not in the macro areas here yet, in our countries.

Kelly Jackson
So, I've got. I've got a couple questions coming in. But I, I'm going to do, two, two more quick ones.

Bradley Schurman
Yep.

Kelly Jackson
Okay. You mentioned earlier in the conversation about China, Thailand, other, India. So, you know, when we think about some of, I think the myths around some of the conversation around aging, you know, often I feel like—and when China comes up, there's this automatic One Child Policy...

Bradley Schurman
Yeah.

Kelly Jackson
...is the, you know, here's the result, that's why they have an aging society.

Bradley Schurman
Yeah.

Kelly Jackson
Given what you just said, though, that doesn't sound like that would be the case.

Bradley Schurman
No. But much like COVID kind of spurred a lot of change that was already in motion, the One Child Policy kind of put China's demographic future into hyperdrive.

Kelly Jackson
Oh, okay.

Bradley Schurman
So, they were already on the path. Lower birth rates are a byproduct of industrialization, much like climate change is a byproduct of industrialization. They, they grew up together, they're sisters. And the challenge for a place like China is, because it is so centralized, their decision-making process—that, once the One Child Policy went in place, it kind of sped everything up to such a point that they couldn't slow it down. They also moved people into urban areas. Urban people have fewer babies, on average, than rural, rural areas. China is in a real demographic bind. And just to put a very fine point on it, China lost a population roughly the size of San Francisco last year. They contracted by 850,000 people last year. This is really unheard of in the history of the world, and is just the starting line for how quickly China will change. It is predicted, based on all the data that we have now, long-term trending, that China could lose up to 800 million people by the end of this century.

Kelly Jackson
Wow.

Bradley Schurman
That will put China roughly the size of the United States, by the end of this century. So, this change is not just quick, it is dramatic, and it's really remaking the map overnight. India, which is a country that is still growing on paper, India's births are already below replacement rate. So, all of India's growth has essentially happened now. They'll grow because their survival rates more than anything else. So, yeah, it's happening quickly. It's happening seemingly overnight. And if you pick up your phone in the morning and glance it and say, "Oh my God, it feels like all of these stories are out there about our aging populations, our demographic change," you're right. Because it's now a clear and present threat. And there are only a few levers that we can really pull to slow the change, or at least make the change less painful in a worst-case scenario; in the best-case scenario, actually grow our economy, actually make society more equitable. And, and the easiest one is to engage older adults.

Kelly Jackson
So, before we get to the audience questions, you know, I think the last thing I was thinking about is, you know, challenges and opportunities...

Bradley Schurman
Yeah.

Kelly Jackson
...right? We talked about the Super-Age and, you know, it's sort of where, where are you leaning there? More challenges, more opportunities?

Bradley Schurman
Well, I mean, I like to think that the Canada and the US, at the end of the day, we're pragmatic. And when challenges come at us, they, they come at us quick. They might come at us over a long time, but usually we, we deal with the challenges. So, if we pull up the slide, there is equal promise and peril right now. And—go to the next one, please—the peril is pretty quick, and easy to understand. If we do not engage people past 65 at a higher rate than we do today, we will see the economy of Canada, we will see the economy of the United States drag. We will see things like the social welfare programs that much of the success of the 20th century were based on, including the extension of longevity, dry up overnight. And we'll really see things like even national credit rating be threatened, because we can't pay our bills for social welfare. Obviously we're not going to get a credit rating that's high, so we can't borrow to build roads, railways, airports, the infrastructure projects that we really need. And this does, actually, even present a geopolitical threat. Because, and I think we'll remember this—we're old enough to remember this—from the Soviet era, there was this debate about guns versus butter. And the Soviet Union chose to, you know, make weapons over making consumer goods. And that was, in theory, what cost them the Cold War. Well, we might have to make a decision pretty soon, if we keep social welfare systems. Is it guns or grandma?

Kelly Jackson
M'hm (affirmative)

Bradley Schurman
And that might sound hyperbolic. But countries in Europe are dealing with this question right now. Do they pay for national defence, protecting their borders, protecting their sovereignty, or do they pay for the social welfare of their retirees? It's not that the pot is limited, but it, but it is getting constrained right now.

Kelly Jackson
Yeah. And, and....

Bradley Schurman
And there's equal opportunity. I mean, there is equal opportunity. If we can go to the next slide, it's pretty simple to see how we can move away from the cycle that we're currently in, into one that's really prosperous, and actually builds more prosperity for Canada and the US. The first thing is to get older workers in. Not only retain people for longer periods of time, but break down those belief structures that we have as hiring managers, and look for talent. Never ever say somebody is over-experienced, or overqualified for a job. We need workers now more than ever. If people stay employed, we know that their, that their health improves. That means fewer hospital visits, fewer periods of illness. That means the strains on our healthcare systems are not nearly as severe. People live in good health for longer periods of time, rather than the current model today, which is bad health for longer periods of time. But internally, within companies, age is a lot like any other measure of diversity. So, if you build that in, you can improve operations by upwards of 30 percent, against organizations that do not. You can also really stimulate innovation, because this is a whole new group of consumers, at least in maths, that we've never had before. But I think for, you know, the government in Ottawa, in particular, this should be priority number one. Because if we get this off the ground, if we're able to include older workers more often, we built the tax base here, substantially. And then we protect social welfare, which benefits all Canadians at the end of the day.

Kelly Jackson
Yeah. And, and it's, it's interesting, too, because I, I was looking at some of the, the stats around, you know, who's over 50, and sort of what does that look like, and what are people, you know, doing in terms of are they employed or are they not employed. And so, it's interesting, so, it's sort of one in five Canadians who are between 55 and 59 are either retired or partially retired. Well, that jumps up to 4/5ths by the time it's 65 to 69th.

Bradley Schurman
Right.

Kelly Jackson
That's not—that's only maybe, the most, a ten-year gap. So, I think it, you know, this opportunity for government, for employers to be thinking about, you know, how do you start having conversations with those individuals...

Bradley Schurman
Yeah.

Kelly Jackson
...right? Who are in their 50's, to say, "Do you want to continue to, you know, work. Maybe just not, maybe it's not full time anymore, maybe it's in a different way." You know, but I think that's, you know, there's this window, it feels like.

Bradley Schurman
Yeah. And there is a window, and it is narrow...

Kelly Jackson
Yeah.

Bradley Schurman
...and it goes very quickly.

Kelly Jackson
Yeah.

Bradley Schurman
You know, oddly enough, we don't have a great social welfare system in the States. So, our labour force participation rate for older adults is better. And we expect that, over the course of the next decade or so, the growth of workers over the age of 65 will grow by about 25 percent. That's a significant jump. But the growth of workers over 75 will leap by nearly 100 percent. So, like, it's a question that kind of goes almost in parallel. Like, are the social welfare benefits today too good? Does there need to be an adjustment? Will that help encourage to stay in the labour force for longer periods of time? I think, to some degree, that is the case—and I know that's a controversial statement. But anytime we've had a great transition, we've had to rethink the social welfare system, we've had to renegotiate the social contract, you know, when social security and national pension systems were put into place, very few people made it to 65. Very, very few. In the States, there were 76,000,000 Boomers born: there's 69,000,000 Boomers over the age of 65 now. We weren't prepared for this.

Kelly Jackson
No.

Bradley Schurman
Our systems weren't prepared for us. So, we have to make adjustments now, to account for our new demographic reality. And that requires us all giving up a little bit to get a lot.

Kelly Jackson
Yeah. And, and it's interesting, you know, I worked at the Ontario Ministry of Education, this was more than a decade ago, right? And even then, you know, we were having these conversations about, about pension plans, right? And, and as you talked about earlier, you know, fundamentally, nobody designs a pension plan to have more people receiving benefits than people working. Like...

Bradley Schurman
Right.

Kelly Jackson
...that's just not how you would ever design one.

Bradley Schurman
Yeah.

Kelly Jackson
So, what do you do now that we have great plans for many people, you want to make sure those benefits continue. But the reality is if you were designing something for today, now, looking at the demographics...

Bradley Schurman
Oh, very different.

Kelly Jackson
...right, it would be a very different approach. And so, trying to figure out, I think that balance of, you know, opportunities going forward. And then protecting and, and being, you know, respectful, obviously, of the, the things that are in place, as well...

Bradley Schurman
Correct.

Kelly Jackson
...right? That people are counting on.

Bradley Schurman
Right. So, we, we're essentially moving almost completely away from a benefit system to a defined contribution system, where people make individual contributions to the marketplace, and the market, money grows over time. Well, what's the best way to ensure that the market continues to grow? People stay in the market for longer. Not just as contributing to it, but also working within it, to keep the economy growing. The reality is, at some point in in the next 30-40 years, both the US and Canada will stop growing, in terms of population. So, not only do we have to think about this immediate period that we're all going to be living in professionally—and for most of our lives, at this point—we also have to start thinking about the what's next. What happens if we go into a period of de-growth?

You know, at some point during this century—and every single demographic demographer agrees to this, it's just a question of date—the world's population stops growing, too. If you're an economist, if you believe that GDP growth is the most important thing for business, we're talking about the end of the world for these folks. If you're an environmentalist, though? You're saying, "Wow, maybe fewer people will make the, a better place." So, there is some thinking that's already starting to evolve around what happens after this. But we got to get to this period right now. This is what we're triaging. And I, and, and older workers, a more diverse workforce, in terms of age, is really the best way to get there for now.

QUESTION & ANSWER

Kelly Jackson
So, we've got, we've got some good audience questions that came in...

Bradley Schurman
Great.

Kelly Jackson
...so, I'll—just going to read these out.

Bradley Schurman
Okay.

Kelly Jackson
Okay. So, one person has submitted this: I'm 42, and a minority woman, having a hard time finding an associate-level position here in Toronto. Why have these kinds of discussions, if systemic bias continues to exist to demolish the other group's growth? So, I think the idea would be, you know, if, you know, when we're talking about this, this piece, and we talk about inclusiveness...

Bradley Schurman
Yeah.

Kelly Jackson
...and I think, certainly, you know, the way in which people in the Super-Age are going to be treated...

Bradley Schurman
Yeah.

Kelly Jackson
...we, we. you know, when you put that Equity Diversity Inclusion lens on, you know, sort of, it becomes even that much more complicated.

Bradley Schurman
Yeah, yeah. it is, it is hyper-complicated, in large part because we've been trained on this idea of perpetual growth. We've been trained on this idea that there will always be young people to fill the jobs. And that's just not true anymore. That, that reality went away around COVID. And I won't see it again in my working life, where there's a flood of workers into the workplace. Because guess what? It takes a long time to make a child into an adult—about 20 years, if you're lucky. So, thinking through that lens, that it takes some time, we're also working against the biases that are already in place. You know, we jumped from about, let's say 19, 20—so, last year we went from 2 billion to 8 billion people worldwide. That's a lot of people to work. And now that growth is really slowing, plateauing, and declining in some places. Change will happen, but it's going to require some constant drumbeats.

Kelly Jackson
M'hm (affirmative). Yeah.

Bradley Schurman
And it's moving very slowly in business, a lot slower than I wish, you know. Only about 8 percent of big companies worldwide now actually do something around age inclusion in the workforce, they actually are doing some proactive policies. We are seeing movement in other areas, specifically around menopause in the workplace, where businesses are realizing this is a threat to lose women around middle age. There's some movement there. But age is a real a real, real issue for businesses. They still have a hard time seeing it. And it is right here. It is right here. And in some regions, it's already behind them, they've already missed the opportunity.

Kelly Jackson
Yeah. I mean, I think in, you know, any conversation we're having about groups that are left out, like ,are not able to participate in the labour force to the extent that they should be is important. And it just draws attention to the fact that there are many groups that that we could be having a different...

Bradley Schurman
Correct.

Kelly Jackson
...conversation about today. And so, for me, I think it's, you know, the question why are we having this conversation today? I think it's this is one element of a bigger conversation around how do we make sure that we have a more equitable set of opportunities for people?

Bradley Schurman
Yeah.

Kelly Jackson
That anybody who wants to participate in the labour force is able to do so in a way that they're bringing their knowledge and their skills, or we're providing more opportunities for...

Bradley Schurman
Correct.

Kelly Jackson
... underrepresented groups, equity-deserving groups to be able to get the skills and knowledge, the training they need to then be able to go and succeed.

Bradley Schurman
Yeah. And also, you know, for managers—I'm sure there's plenty of managers and, and C-Suites that are on this conversation today—really consider intersectionality here, wherever possible. Because aging impacts different racial groups differently, different gender groups differently. Being a Woman of Colour and aging is it's kind of a triple-whammy, because gender and age often collide, it, it's, it's not a great place to be. So, intersectionality is really that thing that I would hope that businesses are being more considerate of, going forward.

Kelly Jackson
Okay. Next question: how do you see AI affecting our views and approach to aging or longevity?

Bradley Schurman
Ah, AI's pretty fantastic. And also, such a big unknown. I mean, it's going to kill a lot of jobs—and I'm okay with that. There are plenty of jobs that were around just 50 years ago that no longer exist. We don't mourn the loss of those jobs. New jobs emerged. What concerns me—and I have a couple of concerns about AI—the first is that the speed of the transformation is unlike anything we've experienced before. And it's very hard for people to keep up in a transition like that. The second part is that AI is mostly built by humans—well, it's all built by humans...

Kelly Jackson
I hope so.

Bradley Schurman
...mostly, mostly young humans. Young men, in particular. And because human beings are inherently flawed, so is AI. And we've already started to see that AI can be racist, it can be sexist, and, and it can be ageist, too. So, that's problematic, especially if we're using AI as human resource professionals. This is a really important point. Because if that bias is built in, that means that when the sorting hat comes out, that AI sorting hat comes out, it's going to throw away a lot of good candidates.

And we're over reliant on AI right now—and certainly all technology platforms—in finding candidates for our workplaces. So, these are the, the real problems here. But I'll tell you this: older adults typically—and this is a generalization, here, but—they generally have some additional layers of curiosity, they've got these really strong human skills because they were born into an analog world, for the most part. I'm Gen-X. I grew up right on the line. So, I have that both that analog and digital. But there's inherent traits, I think, of curiosity and exploration that exist for people that that live, lived in that analong world, that can be immediately applied to the AI and the digital world. That human part of us really shines during a period of AI transformation.

Kelly Jackson
Okay. Next one: what are some good examples of a flexible work that better retains an aging workforce?

Bradley Schurman
Yeah. I mean, it really depends on the workplace. If you are in a white-collar job, it is much different than a blue-collar job. It really depends on the industry. I mean, I, I hate to just put it that way. But if you're in a white-collar job, that is typically 40 hours-a-week, 9-to-5. What works? Generally, flexibility, broadly, is the thing that everybody wants. Doesn't matter what their age is. And flexibility could be caregiving leave, it could be around work-from-home one day a week. It could be some type of flex schedule....

Kelly Jackson
Job sharing.

Bradley Schurman
Job sharing is certainly one of those things that's becoming more and more common in white-collar work.

Kelly Jackson
Yeah.

Bradley Schurman
Blue collar work, direct-service work, whether that be in a restaurant or in retail, perhaps in a hotel or hospitality environment—certainly, in a factory—that becomes a little bit more difficult to manage. But there are businesses that are trying. In fact, there's a pretty neat business case, of all places, Chick-fil-A, in South Florida. And Chick-fil-A has created a flexible working environment within a business that is dominated by shiftwork. It is shiftwork. And what they do is, essentially, they have pods of people that work together, and they work in these pod clusters, kind of like nurses, for a little bit longer each day. But it gives them the flexibility to not have to work two weekends out of the month.

Kelly Jackson
Yeah.

Bradley Schurman
So, this is pod work, flexible, in a direct service environment. That's pretty revolutionary. Chick-fil-A isn't doing this, that, that particular operator isn't doing this because he wants to. It's because he needs to. He wants to find the best talent to fill those positions, to improve the profitability of his restaurant. And he's done it. He has, when a, if a position opens up, it is filled immediately, and the retention rates are through the roof. Because even direct-service workers, people who're on those front lines, they want flexibility too. Everybody wants a little piece of this pie.

Kelly Jackson
Okay. Last question that I'll ask, before we have a chance to just maybe do some closing...

Bradley Schurman
Sure.

Kelly Jackson
... closing observations or thoughts.

Bradley Schurman
Sure.

Kelly Jackson
And this is, this is a Canadian specific question, so, you know...

Bradley Schurman
Yeah.

Kelly Jackson
...you'll have to see if you feel you can comment on it.

Bradley Schurman
Okay.

Kelly Jackson
Would you agree that the federal government needs to change the age at which we must convert RRSP's to RRIF's, and also the maximum age to start collecting CPP—so, the Canada Pension Plan?

Bradley Schurman
Yeah. I obviously don't know all the, all the, all the acronyms, there. But given I've been here before and understand the system a bit, yes. The answer is yes. But these changes have to be considered not as a one-size-fits-all. We got ourselves into this problem because we created a one-size-fits-all pension system, where when you hit a certain age, regardless of your physical, mental, financial well-being, you were retired, or you were pushed into retirement, or you chose to retire. If we simply retire the, retire the age of retirement, increase it—well, that's like taking a sledgehammer to open up a walnut. Like, it's not the right approach. And we do need, maybe, a more nuanced approach out of Ottawa—and Washington, in my case—where we look at the health and the welfare of the individual. Not just their financial health, but also their physical and mental health. Because what we know about people is the longer we live, the less alike we are than each other, in terms of what our financial realities have been, or our, our health situations. And there are plenty of people—I'm 46—there's plenty of people who I know at 46 who are in terrible health; friends I went to high school with. There are other people that I know who are 82 and did their first marathon last year. So, there are different realities for different people.

I would hope that our governments—if they can get through this rather bumpy and weird period they're in—will take this opportunity to address the challenges of the pension system, realize that it's not sustainable in its current model, and offer up some unique thinking about how we can, can meet the future. Because if we don't, it starts to fall apart pretty quickly. Our pension system starts stops paying out in full by the end of this decade. So, this is not a, "Oh, it's coming," problem..

Kelly Jackson
A hypothetical.

Bradley Schurman
...this is a, "It's here." It's, we know the date almost, almost to the day.

Kelly Jackson
Wow.

Bradley Schurman
So, it's coming. It's this is not something that's hypothetical anymore.

Kelly Jackson
Yeah. I mean, I think, I think all through this conversation, right? It, it is this sort of trying to ground, you know...

Bradley Schurman
Right.

Kelly Jackson
...all of these trends and all of these things that are happening in a very volatile world, it feels like, right now, to say, "Yeah, this is upon us, we're living this." This isn't, again, you know, we're talking about "In 50 years, it might look like X." And so, you know, I think, you know, I'm, you know, just so pleased that we were able to have this conversation today. You know, Empire Club of Canada has always been about having the conversations that matter to Canadians. And it feels like this, there couldn't be a more important conversation for us to be, to be having about how this is really going to impact, you know, everything.

Bradley Schurman
Yeah. And I for—I appreciate you having me, and of course, really appreciate the opportunity to spend part of this afternoon with you all, as well. This future, this period that we're in, is bumpy. If it feels that way, it's, it is that way. Demographics. Not just the aging of our population, the lowering birth rates, but also the migration, both internal and external, into our countries, is really quite dramatic. When you overlay things like geopolitical competition, when you overlay climate change, it can be really scary. But there's a great opportunity to make change right now, and really build a more prosperous Canada. I hope the same for my country, too. Because we don't get opportunities like this very often to rewrite the book.

Kelly Jackson
No, I'm glad you, you're sort of ending there, because I was thinking about this, too, that it's easy as you start to get into it, to then almost end up with the very glib, "Well, I guess it's about freedom 65 now...

Bradley Schurman
Yeah. Right.

Kelly Jackson
..not freedom 55 anymore." But then the reality, when we talk about opportunities, and we talk about, yes, we are living in this very complex time...

Bradley Schurman
Yes.

Kelly Jackson
...but we have the ability to make changes, right? And you know, during the COVID pandemic, there was a lot of talk about building back better, right? Now, it feels like that narrative has sort of disappeared. And so, for me, when we, we're looking at this, and then when reading your book, and you talk a lot about that, like, this is an opportunity to reset, to recalibrate, to think about how we build a more equitable, a more sustainable future for all. Something that is much more inclusive, something that is not just one-size-fits-all.

Bradley Schurman
Yeah.

Kelly Jackson
Recognizing the diversity across our countries.

Bradley Schurman
Yeah.

Kelly Jackson
And so, to me, you know, it's easy to kind of get overwhelmed as you're, you know, going through this, or like I said, sort of just the glib one line. But, really, the takeaway, I think, needs to be that we actually should be kind of inspired to act.

Bradley Schurman
We should be. This is a call for every Canadian, every American, to action.

Kelly Jackson
Yeah.

Bradley Schurman
And we know, we—all the data's there. We know exactly what we can do today to make it right. And we also know if, what inaction means too, what can put it all wrong. And so, I challenge everyone, take it upon yourself to be a big contributor to this. Because the future is ours to make.

Kelly Jackson
Well, let's end on that.

Bradley Schurman
Thanks.

Kelly Jackson
That is a great, great quote, line to take us out. I would now like to welcome Ginger Grant, the Dean of Research and Innovation at Humber College, to provide some appreciation remarks for our talk today.

Note of Appreciation by Ginger Grant, Dean of Research and Innovation, Humber College
Hello to all our viewers who joined us today. My name is Ginger Grant, and I'm the Dean of Research and Innovation at Humber College. Thanks, Kelly, and Bradley, for that insightful and important discussion. Canada and many other countries around the world are faced with an aging population. And as we've heard, it's imperative that society recognizes the impact and the opportunities with which this demographic switch brings us. We ignore them at our own detriment.

Bradley, we're grateful for your sharing your expertise on these changing demographics, and your insights into how business can tap into the experience and value that older Canadians bring as leaders, workers, and consumers. It is an emerging market. Humber College is looking to understand exactly what this shift will mean. Our Aging and Community Education Research Hub—or ACER for short—we conduct innovative research that creates, implements, and evaluates solutions that strengthen community-based supports that will empower older adults to remain engaged in, and connected to the workforce in their communities.

Importantly, older adults will play a crucial role in guiding research that ACER is conducting. And as much as possible, they will participate in research projects as project leads, research assistants, or in some cases, primary investigators. It is a true collaboration that we are creating between older adults, Humber, the private sector, government, community organizations, and other post-secondary institutions. There's six research areas at ACER that we're looking at right at the moment: community connections, communications and marketing, workplace innovation, enabling technologies, the built environment, and health and wellness.

Canada is at an important crossroads with our adult working-age population shrinking, bringing new challenges around labour force demands, housing, healthcare, technology adoption, and traditional models of business and education. The realities of population aging are upon us. And so are the opportunities for communities, businesses, and governments, to respond in new ways to foster economic growth, inclusion, and support for at-risk populations, and the health of our rural communities.

Thank you, Bradley, for your work to make society aware of the incredible opportunities of the Super Age, and we hope you will continue to be a friend and collaborator in the work underway at ACER. Thank you all for joining us, and enjoying the rest of your afternoon.

Concluding Remarks by Sal Rabbani
Thank you. Thank you, Ginger, and thanks again to Humber College, and all our sponsors for their support, and to Bradley Schurman, and everyone joining us today online. As a club of record, all Empire Club of Canada events are available to watch and listen to on demand on our website. A recording of this event will be available shortly, and everyone registered will receive an e-mail with the link.

Our next event of the season is on Tuesday, October 10th, at the Arcadian Court, where Randy Boissonault, Canada's Minister of Employment, Workforce Development and Official Languages, will join me for a fireside conversation on how Canada's workforce is leading the way, as we respond and adapt to the changing world. Thank you, once again. Have a wonderful afternoon. This meeting is now adjourned.