Preventing the Next Pandemic-Like Event

July 28, 2020

The Empire Club of Canada Presents

Preventing the Next Pandemic-Like Event

Chairman: Antoinette Tummillo, President, Board of Directors, Empire Club of Canada

Moderator
Naomi Parness, Former CTV, CityTV News Reporter

Distinguished Guest Speakers
Melissa Matlow, Campaign Chair, World Animal Protection
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, Liberal MP, Beaches-East York
Dr. David Gold, Chief Meteorologist, IBM Services
Parmin Darsandu, CEO Santha Technologies, Inc.

Introduction
It is a great honour for me to be here at the Empire Club of Canada today, which is arguably the most famous and historically relevant speaker’s podium to have ever existed in Canada. It has offered its podium to such international luminaries as Winston Churchill, Ronald Reagan, Audrey Hepburn, the Dalai Lama, Indira Gandhi, and closer to home, from Pierre Trudeau to Justin Trudeau; literally generations of our great nation's leaders, alongside with those of the world's top international diplomats, heads of state, and business and thought leaders.

It is a real honour and distinct privilege to be invited to speak to the Empire Club of Canada, which has been welcoming international diplomats, leaders in business, and in science, and in politics. When they stand at that podium, they speak not only to the entire country, but they can speak to the entire world.

Welcome Address by Antoinette Tummillo, President, Board of Directors, Empire Club of Canada
Good afternoon, fellow directors, past presidents, members, and guests. Welcome to the 117th season of the Empire Club of Canada, and our second summer pre-season event in the club's history. My name is Antoinette Tummillo. I'm president of the Empire Club of Canada, and your host for today's virtual event, "Preventing the Next Pandemic-Like Event." This is our first Empire Evening event. And when we have live events, we typically have a cocktail and hors d'oeuvres , so I hope you have your cocktail ready. Cheers!

I now call this meeting to order. Let me start by thanking our sponsors. As a not-for-profit organization, these events would not be possible without the generous support of our sponsors. I want to thank our Event Sponsor today, Santha Technologies, and gettingbacktowork.com. They have developed a proactive health screening and contact tracing solution for workplaces. Active health screening and contact tracing capabilities are essential as we safely reopen our economy and mitigate workplace transmission risk. I also want to thank our Event Partner VVC and livemeeting.ca, Canada's online event space, for webcasting today's event. And thank you to our media partner, National Post.

As we all know, we have been living in a pandemic for the last several months. This has upended our economy and posed a severe threat to public health. As our municipal, provincial, and federal governments have struggled to respond to the pandemic, it's time to look at what may have caused this pandemic and how we can prevent the next pandemic-like event. We have a great panel today, who will look at how our relationship with wildlife and the environment has played a role in previous, and potentially, future pandemic-like events. I feel honoured to welcome our incredible panel.

Dr. David Gold is Chief Meteorologist for IBM's Global Business Services. His responsibilities include oversight of the weather and climate analytics enterprise at IBM, which also owns The Weather Company. David holds a Ph.D. and an M.S. in Atmospheric Sciences from Texas A&M University, and a Bachelor of Science in Meteorology with a minor in Math from the University of Oklahoma. In addition to his love of weather, David is an experienced data scientist. He loves to leverage machine learning and statistical modeling to model the relationship between business outcomes and weather. David also plays drums, does CrossFit, and even goes storm chasing.

Nathaniel "Nate" Erskine-Smith was elected the Member of Parliament for Beaches-East York in 2015. Before politics, Nate was a lawyer at a commercial litigation firm in downtown Toronto, and one heck of a pitcher for the Queen's University baseball team, where he obtained a B.A. in Politics and his law degree. Nate worked hard to bring an end to cannabis prohibition, as well as being a champion for the environment.

Melissa Matlow is the Canadian Campaign Director for World Animal Protection, an international animal welfare charity with offices in 14 countries. She has been leading successful animal welfare and environmental campaigns for nearly 20 years. Melissa obtained a Bachelor's in Environmental Science from the University of Guelph, and a Master's in Environmental Studies from York University.

This panel will be moderated by Naomi Parness. She is the co-founder of KPW Communications, and a former CTV News reporter. Naomi is an award-winning storyteller, content creator, communication specialist, and journalist. She has been a reporter with over 20 years of experience, spending almost a decade at CityTV News. Naomi left news in 2016 but continued her passion for storytelling. She spent three years at UJA Federation of Greater Toronto. Now, as the co-founder of KPW Communications, she is responsible for content creation and digital storytelling for public, private sector, and charities.

Now, before I turn things over to Naomi, I just want to remind everyone on this call that this is an interactive event. We encourage you to take advantage of the question box below and let us know what's on your mind, and if you have any questions for our panellists. Over to you, Naomi.

Naomi Parness, Former CTV, CityTV News Reporter
Thank you so much, Antoinette. I'm so honoured to be here tonight with all of you. As you said, I'm Naomi Parnes, and I'm thrilled to be moderating today's discussion, "Preventing the Next Pandemic-Like Event." I wish I got the note, Antoinette, about the wine, because I would have brought it. I could definitely have used that— think we all could have used the cocktail. And it was so interesting to hear some of the things about the people who I'm speaking with. CrossFit, David? We didn't talk about that! So, there's a lot of things that we can talk about here.

But this is a really important and timely discussion, as Antoinette said. This has been an unprecedented time in all of our lives, we've each been affected in different ways. I know many of us are worried about how to get through our own daily lives right now, and there's no end in sight. So, it's, it's strange to talk about the next pandemic, but it's actually extremely important and timely. We know how much this has impacted our lives. So, we have to figure out ways to avoid something like this from happening again. Today, we're going to be discussing how our relationship with nature, specifically wildlife and climate, has contributed to the current pandemic and previous public health issues, and what steps need to be taken to ensure Canada doesn't find itself in a similar position in the future.

The UN Environment Program Director spoke out earlier this month, saying, if we keep exploiting wildlife and destroying our ecosystems, we can expect to see a steady stream of these diseases jumping from animals to humans in the years ahead. So, that kind of sets the stage for what we're going to be talking about here, today. Keep in mind, this is a Zoom chat, you know, it's one of their first live events. So, we're gonna try to, to do this on Zoom. We're gonna try and raise our hands and be polite, using Zoom etiquette. But you'll have to give us all a little bit of some leeway, because this is our first time doing it here on Zoom.

The COVID-19 pandemic is offering us many important lessons. We need to make sure we're learning them. So, let's start off with welcoming our panel. Our first panellist is Melissa Matlow, the Campaign Chair for World Animal Protection. We're so glad you're here with us today, Melissa. Talk to us about how wildlife has played a role in this pandemic.

Melissa Matlow, Campaign Chair, World Animal Protection
Thanks so much, Naomi. And first, I just want to thank the Empire Club for inviting me to be part of this terrific panel. Delighted to be here with Nathaniel and David, talking about such an important topic that I really don't think has received the attention it truly deserves. So, why am I here from an animal welfare group? Well, it's because 75% of new and emerging infectious diseases impacting human health over the last decade or so come from animals, and mainly from wildlife. And that should be reason for our government to be concerned and proactive.

It's widely acknowledged that a wildlife market in Wuhan, China, played a very significant role in the COVID-19 outbreak. There's, there's ample evidence that there's an early cluster of cases that were traced back to this wet market that sold live and, and dead wild animals. Scientists are suggesting they believe that the virus was transmitted from bats through a pangolin to humans. And while research is still going on to really confirm the evolution of this virus, it's pretty clear that, you know, this pandemic and previous epidemics around the world, whether we're talking about MERS, SARS, Ebola, H1N1, HIV, it's fundamentally linked to our cruel treatment of animals, our exploitation of wildlife, and our encroachment on their habitats.

And this isn't the first wildlife market that had, you know, some implications on a big public health crisis. A similar wildlife market was, you know, believed to have been the cause of the SARS outbreak in 2002. And at that time, wildlife markets were temporarily closed, and then they were allowed to reopen after the epidemic. And I can't help but wonder, had those markets remained closed through a permanent ban, would we be here today? Would we have experienced this pandemic? And it's something we should be asking.

But it's also a global problem. It's not—wildlife markets just exist in China or Asia; they exist around the world. And there is a, a multi-billion-dollar commercial trade in wildlife that involves all countries, including our own. Millions of wild animals are, are traded every year. They're captured from the wild, either illegally or legally, bred in captivity for luxury products that I would say no one really needs. And the risks are too high, and the animal suffering and the risk of zoonotic disease transmissions exist at every step of that wildlife trade. So, Canada ought to play a role. We'd like to see Canada consider its role in the global wildlife trade and fueling that supply and demand for wildlife products, which is made easier by our lax domestic regulations.

So, I think we're all anxious for the, you know, a vaccine. But a vaccine is not going to prevent the next pandemic. We ought to be looking at the source of, of this problem, the source of the outbreak. I would say it's rooted in animal welfare and environmental challenges, and curbing the wildlife trade is one of the most effective strategies to prevent the next pandemic.

Naomi Parness
Thank you. You summed it all up, Melissa. Not sure what else we're going to talk about there. But no, we do, we have a lot of other things to talk about. But I want to get to our second panellist, Chief Meteorologist from IBM, David Gold. David, thanks for being here. Tell us about how climate has played a role in our current crisis.

Dr. David Gold, Chief Meteorologist, IBM Services
Yeah. Well, it's, it's not clear that climate change actually, you know, was proximately responsible for COVID. But there is a lot of evidence that suggests strong linkages. I want to start out, also, by thanking the Empire Club of Canada for having me on. This is, of course, timely, and I think a topic that a lot of people are interested in. We're seeing a tremendous shock to our civilization because of this pandemic. Despite the comparatively apparently low death rate, it's still a very serious contagion. And because of the fact that it's so easily spread through asymptomatic carriers, I think this was one of the things that allowed it to, to, to spread so quickly.

But, you know, climate really was kind of front and centre up until COVID came along. But the two are very closely linked. You know, I was thinking philosophically about what's been happening. And I was thinking back on, on some of these, some of the things I've read. You know, I read this book that came out quite a few years ago now called "The Black Swan," and I was thinking about, you know, is this a Black Swan, or is it something else? And you know, shocks to civilizations and, and the infrastructure that humankind has built up, they come really, I think, arguably in two forms. One of them is Black Swans, which is attributable to author Nassim Taleb, and another is Grey Rhinos, which is a comparatively newer term discussed by Michele Wucker in her book by that name.

The former, Black Swans, they're events that are extremely rare and completely unforeseeable. So, an example would be—not a very relevant example for mankind right now, but a meteorite striking Earth and wiping out the dinosaurs would be a Black Swan event. Whereas, arguably, COVID and, and climate change are more like Grey Rhinos. They're, they're actually comparatively higher in probability and foreseeable, but they're also neglected. We tend to put things on the back burner that either, you know, we don't really think are going to be a problem, or that we think we, we have some time to deal with, like climate change. But the cost of not having comprehensive systems in place to deal with these events is, is huge, as we've seen. You know, for the amount of money that the US Treasury has laid out just in, in compensating Americans for the, the economic losses suffered over these last few months, would have been more than enough to, to make a big stride toward net-zero. Meaning, you know, to really significantly lower our emissions, our our carbon footprint. And climate change, if unchecked, the cost of that will also be extremely high.

But as I mentioned, there's a huge, you know, body of evidence emerging that climate change is setting the stage for potentially additional disease outbreaks, possibly outbreaks that may, you know, be larger than what we're seeing now, as climate zones shift northward. So, as warm air comes north, this may favour the, the outbreak of dangerous pathogens that are currently endemic to tropical regions. They may now start to be seen more and more in middle and high latitudes. And so, you know, those are some of the linkages that I think are worth looking at, and I'm glad that we're here to talk about it.

Naomi Parness
Thanks, David. We're thrilled to have the Member of Parliament from Beaches-East York joining us today. Welcome, Nathaniel Erskine-Smith. Nate will offer us insight into the role government can and should play. Hi, Nate.

Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, Liberal MP, Beaches-East York
Hi, yeah, thanks to the Empire Club for hosting this conversation. You know, hearing from Melissa and from David, each emphasizing different aspects of this challenge, be it animal protections and welfare, and climate change, I would encourage everyone, as we anchor this conversation, to read a report from the UN Environment Program from earlier this month focused on preventing future pandemics. And while, of course, we have to stay focused on the fallout and the health consequences and, and limiting the current challenges we face with the COVID-19 pandemic, we have to also have our eye on the future and how we can prevent future pandemics or future pandemic-like events that are, whether it be climate change, and the real negative impacts not only on human health, on animal health, but also on our economies.

And so, when we look at that report, we, we see these ideas of animal protections, human health, and environmental considerations, come under the banner of a One Health approach. And that has to be our focus. It has been a focus of Health Canada in tackling antimicrobial resistance to date, which is another issue that increases pandemic risk and, and risk of disease emergence. And so, I, I think we, obviously, need our government and officials to sit down and look at all of the areas of potential pandemic risk, both domestically but also internationally, and, and how, whether it's the wildlife trade, whether it is intensive animal agriculture, whether it is the need to reduce climate change risks, that all of these factors provide risks for future pandemics. And governments need to take action on all of them under a One Health approach.

Naomi Parness
Thank you, Nate. It is hard, as Nate said. I mean, I think everyone's commented on that. It's hard to think about the next pandemic-like event while we're still struggling to figure out what to do with this one. But as you can see from all the introductions, there's, there's a lot to think about. And it's important to think about these things because we have to make sure that we are thinking ahead so that we're not in a situation like we're in right now. And there's ways that, as you'll hear from everyone on the panel, that they believe this can be prevented.

To all of you at home, we'll have time at the end of the panel discussion to take some questions from the audience. You can use the Zoom chat feature to pose a question. And at the end of the discussion, depending on how much time we have left, I'm going to pose your questions to the panel. So, if you have any questions, make sure you're sending them in. We also have a polling question, which you'll be able to see there. You can access it by the QR code or by checking the link that you've received. The question is: Should Canada work on a pandemic prevention strategy that considers animal welfare and climate change as key components?

And very interesting, David is coming to us from Texas. So, we were talking before about, you know, the differences between the two countries and, and what both have done. I've spoken with a number of Americans over the last few days who seem very pleased with Canada's response. But you might hear from Melissa, who's not pleased with Canada's response, so we'll see. We'll see about that. But let's, let's start off the discussion, here. As we enter the fifth month of the COVID pandemic here in Canada, we're seeing more and more experts and members of the media discussing how we can prevent the next pandemic or pandemic-like event from occurring. And we're also seeing that our relationship with nature needs to be re-examined. So, Melissa, as you mentioned in your opening remarks, evidence does suggest that COVID-19 emerged most likely from a wet market in Wuhan, China. You also mentioned several other viruses that have been linked from animals jumping to humans. Can you talk about how our relationship with wildlife needs to change to prevent the spread of new and infectious disease?

Melissa Matlow
Sure, thank you for that question. I mean, I think it's the commodification of wildlife that's really the root of this problem, in terms of our relationship with animals. It's that, that desire to, to make every last dollar out of an animal and ignore its well-being, its very nature. Nathaniel Erskine-Smith mentioned the, farming as well. It's the same thing where, you know, we're producing, you know, we're making these animals into growth-promoting machines and ignoring their very nature, and then they're vulnerable to disease and infection. So, it's this, you know, and you see it in our policies. Our wildlife trade policies are designed to protect the commercial trade, the commercial business, this multi-billion-dollar business, at the expense of all these other external costs to animal welfare, to the environment, to public health, and that's what really has to change.

Nathaniel Erskine-Smith
David, when we normally discuss climate change, we don't immediately think of the connection with pandemics and the spread of infectious diseases. But numerous studies, including one by the World Economic Forum in 2016, identify that direct link between climate change and the spreading of infectious diseases. Can you explain it to us in non-scientific terms, because as I said, I need to be able to understand it as well. How are climate change and pandemics related? How can one disaster—in this case the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic—set the stage for a vastly amplified second disaster?

Dr. David Gold
Right. Well, that of course is a great question, and one that I think, you know, many different organizations and governments are going to have to grapple with. Because, you know, climate change is certainly happening. And I think the most direct way that climate change can set the stage and, you know, create a pathway for more outbreaks, you know, is to, essentially, shift warmer and wetter conditions further north, push them closer to the poles. I don't want to ignore the southern hemisphere because, you know, they've had, obviously, a lot of vector-borne diseases and, and other contagions as well. So, you know, Dengue Fever and Malaria are good examples. You know, these are diseases that impact a fairly sizable percentage of the world population. And there are some studies that show that, you know, these diseases are by and large not really seen in the higher latitudes where, you know, a lot of the folks on this call live. We could be introducing these, you know, these disease-carrying insects and the disease itself into these higher latitudes, just because we're basically displacing, on average, warmer air masses that can support, you know, can support them and support the carriers.

And it is climate change in general disruptive. It disrupts the habitats of many wildlife species, and can push these, you know, potential disease-carriers into closer proximity to where humans live, increasing the probability for these types of outbreaks to develop.

You know, I, I was reading the other day a statistic that epidemiologists have identified, I think, nearly two million potentially harmful viruses passing between animal populations that have not yet spilled over to humans. And with rapid climate change occurring, you know, that's a pathway to facilitate the spillover. So, you know, some of the pathways can be just explained by the fact that we're making larger areas of geography more favourable for the insects and the, you know, the animals, the carriers to thrive.

But then some of the same factors that may be contributing to climate change can also again set the stage for proximity of humans and wildlife. I mean, think about how Ebola happened. I mean, there's some evidence that, you know, clear-cutting of forest is playing a role in pushing certain species of bats out of their natural habitat to the edge of the forest, in close proximity to new development and where people are. And so, you know, in general, some of the same factors that can actually change the climate, namely things like clear-cutting of forests on an industrial scale, can also disrupt habitats in ways that make us more prone.

Naomi Parness
Yeah, that number, two million. I've done a lot of reading in order to do this panel. And it is actually very scary when you think about what else is out there. Nate, as an MP from Beaches-East York, you've been working non-stop with the federal government on our pandemic response and economic recovery. Studies related to the topics of climate change and the wildlife trade say governments must make smart investments to avert another outbreak. They say they must control illegal wildlife trade and need to take action on climate change. Has the government begun to determine what steps it needs to take from a wildlife and climate change aspect to protect public health, or are they there yet? Where are they?

Nathaniel Erskine-Smith
So, certainly, the government has been running off its feet in many respects to address the economic fallout and, and health consequences of the current pandemic. But I would say work has been in place prior to the pandemic to address many of these issues. I just want to highlight the point that both David and Melissa have made about the consequences of animal-human interaction here. So, the UN report makes it very clear—Melissa mentioned 75% of new and emerging diseases are coming from animals. Also, we know 60% of human infections to date have come from animals as well. And so, whether it is encroachment on habitat, whether it is the wildlife trade, whether it is intensive animal agriculture, all of these increased interactions between humans and animals present disease risk, present potential pandemic risk.

In terms of where the government’s at in addressing those kinds of interactions, if we look at climate change, absolutely, we've made significant progress. When I look at Environment Canada's report from early 2016, our projected 2030 emissions were 815 megatons. The most recent report from early 2019 has this down to 592 megatons—so a 25% reduction. Is that progress? Absolutely. Is it significant progress? Yes. Is it enough? No.

And so, while things have been sideswiped in part, I expected this past budget—had there been a budget—to be a climate budget. We did not have a budget because of the pandemic, of course. And so, there are active conversations about the implementation of our platform commitments on climate. There are active conversations about a green and just recovery. So, I would say on climate, we are very much focused. You'll also see a focus on biodiversity and protecting greater tracts of land and water. So, there's that focus as well. I would say on the wildlife trade, and I think Melissa and World Animal Protection have been right to highlight the need for action here, because I don't see the government moving as quickly. Certainly, I don't see previous commitments from the government to tackle the wildlife trade in a serious way versus our strong commitments on climate, for example.

And similarly, when I—and I'll finish off by focusing on industrial agriculture. So, it is mentioned in the UN report. It's also, I remember sitting in a briefing from the World Bank a number of years ago focusing on antimicrobial resistance and the threat of superbugs. The vast majority of antibiotics that are used around the world—and it's true in Canada too—are used in the course of animal agriculture. And that creates pandemic risk—disease risk, but potentially pandemic risk, in the sense that these superbugs can emerge.

We aren't able to respond to diseases in the same way if we don't have the possibility of using antibiotics effectively because they've been overused previously. Health Canada has taken a serious role in tackling antimicrobial resistance. I would say, if I look at the big picture pre-pandemic, there were a lot of conversations underway on climate, and aims to tackle climate and disease prevention, less so on wildlife. And I would say, we haven't yet, as a government, started to have real active conversations about post-COVID steps to prevent a future pandemic with that particular lens in mind, as the UN's report earlier this month suggests.

Naomi Parness
And I'm supposed to get to my second question. But just to respond to that, Nate, I mean, how quickly do you think, Melissa and David, that the government needs to act? Obviously, everyone is so focused right now on what they need to do right now. Do you think that this is something they need to do immediately? I mean, is this something they should be thinking of right now? Melissa, maybe do you want to go first?

Melissa Matlow
If they had been before, maybe we would be preventing some of the risks, here. If countries, not just Canada, had called for a shutdown of wildlife markets after the SARS outbreak, then maybe we wouldn't have been here. There's no time to—I mean, yes, they could take time to deal with economic recovery. But I think, as David has mentioned, like, you know, it takes a crisis to move a government into action. Unfortunately, with the climate crisis, it's not as visible. Now's our time to rebuild better, build our economy back better, and try to facilitate a transition to a more resilient way of living that prevents, and is pandemic-proof.

Naomi Parness
David?

Dr. David Gold
Well, I mean, I think certainly, now that we've seen the cost of pandemics, I think immediate action is needed. But the question is, what action? And I think, again, not to speak out of turn, because this isn't my area of expertise, but it seems to me that we just need better understanding. We need, we need to, you know, really ramp up research into, you know, why did this happen. And I think Melissa's given some good insights into the role of wet markets, and the fact that, you know, now you've, you put people next to carriers where maybe they wouldn't have been before. But we need to understand, where are these hotspots? We need to stop having failures of imagination. Where will the next pandemic—where are some candidate hotspots where this is happening. And we need to act to minimize the risk of that occurring.

With respect to climate change, we're already seeing severe global impacts. You know, the science of attribution has improved to the point where we can say that there's an X-percent, we can actually say that this heatwave is X-percent more likely to have happened because of climate change. Rapid rise in the global temperature, which is manifesting in regional ways that are very important. We need to definitely take action there.

First of all, even if we shut off all carbon emissions tomorrow, the, the atmosphere is still going to be responding to this perturbation we've introduced for a long time. Carbon dioxide has a very long residence time in the atmosphere; it's changing the chemistry of the ocean. We must act, because there's an inertia in the system that won't just turn off. We also need to act quickly with respect to adaptation measures. We need to shore up cities, locations prone to coastal flooding. I'm going to talk about—I think I might mention Superfund sites. There was a study just released shows they're at risk of being inundated. We need to act immediately to shore up those sites, because, you know, they contain huge toxic waste facilities. We don't want inundation occur and release that level of toxin into populous areas. So yes, I think government—and in some cases, depending on the severity and proximity of these impacts, the government needs to act.

Naomi Parness
Nathaniel, I think you wanted to speak? You had your hand up.

Nathaniel Erskine-Smith
Yeah, only that I think that's right, in terms of the approach that we need to assess risk. And so, there are number of different human activities, unsustainable human activities, that contribute to pandemic risk. And as a government, we need to identify all areas of pandemic risk, and assess where we are in tackling these risks. Because an issue like climate change, which can contribute to that risk, also contributes to other non-pandemic risks as well, that we should act on, too—and we are. And there are other areas, the wildlife markets around the world that we, as domestic consumers, contribute to in some fashion—although we don't have the same unregulated wild markets here in Canada in quite the same way. And so, there's a risk that we are part of, but we can't solve that problem on our own. And so, once we assess the various areas and activities of risk, we can determine how we contribute to them and how we can start contributing to a solution.

And I would say on the climate action piece, significant action is underway, and there's a sense that the issue needs to be tackled; I think less of a sense on the wildlife trade. And so, all the more reason to have this conversation, and for organizations like World Animal Protection, and zoologists as well, to call for action.

And, I guess, the last thing I would say is that we need to listen to our experts. And so, when we see the UN issue the report, when I see zoologists point to mink farms and say this is a source of risk as well, and we need to be tackling these, either through improved regulations or shutting them down. We've learned a lot in the course of this crisis. But I hope we've learned at least two lessons: one is that we need to listen to our health experts, and we need to take preventative action now. Even if it seems costly in the short term the cost of inaction will be so much greater. And we are living through that and learning that now, unfortunately, in the course this pandemic. And we need to ensure that those lessons are taken forward and that we prevent a future one.

Naomi Parness
Melissa, the way you speak about it, I mean, it almost seems logical that it would just be, that would be the thing ,to shut them down. I mean, if you, you know, the way you presented, and the facts that we know, and the evidence that we have, it would be to really work on shutting them down. But there are some people who may think you're using the pandemic to push the animal welfare agenda. What do you have to say to the naysayers?

Melissa Matlow
Sure, I mean, yeah, let's be clear. Our mission is to end animal cruelty and, and to advance animal welfare. But solutions to protect animal welfare have positive benefits for, for human health and, and the, and, and the planet as well. So, we always work to, to protect people and animals alike. But I mean, there's the zoonotic disease experts are backing our call for curbing the wildlife trade. This, you know, we're not the only ones that are raising the alarm bell here about the roots of this crisis being, you know, deeply connected to our treatment and exploitation of wildlife. So, and, and it's very much an animal welfare issue. If you look at the conditions at a wildlife market, I mean, here you have different species that would never encounter each other in the wild, kept side by side in close proximity, in stressful, cramped cages. That's an animal welfare problem. And when animals are stressed, they're more vulnerable to infections and more infectious. Now you mix the people into that situation, you can see why these wildlife markets are the ideal environment for the emergence and spread of deadly diseases. Now we don't have the same wildlife markets here in Canada, but we certainly have characteristics of that. And we have situations where you have diverse species and cramped quarters and we have very little regulations to really address not only the zoonotic disease risk but the environmental risks, and the animal welfare as well.

Naomi Parness
And so, David, I'll ask the same question to you. What's your response people who think that climate activists are using this as a way of pushing their own agenda? You know, many people will argue this is not where we need to be putting our money, we should be putting it into health care long-term care facilities. I mean, there's so many other things that are close to people's hearts right now and it may not be the number one priority. What do you have to say to them?

Dr. David Gold
Well, of course, you have to prioritize. But Nathaniel said something extremely important and insightful and true which is you have to do risk assessment, you know, risk, I think you can think of it as the, basically, the cost of an outcome multiplied by the probability of the outcome. So if you have an outcome that has a, say, a 1-in-10 chance of occurring but it, it, it'll cost a hundred trillion dollars, and you have another outcome that has a, say, a 5-out-of-10 chance of occurring, but it only cost 10 trillion dollars. Well, you can look at the, you can, you can sort of then weigh the different costs and say, hmm, we might want to take care of, or at least give equal weight to the much, potentially much costlier event, even though it has a much lower assessed probability of occurrence.

So, you know, while we have a lot of uncertainty about, you know, the impact of climate change, there's some things we're very confident in, and there are some things that we're not. We're very confident, for example, in the fact that, you know, temperatures are rising about twice as fast in places like Canada as in the southern parts or the areas closer to the equator. But it's hard to see that leading to something like severe heat stress. However, we have lower confidence that it's creating much more extremes. For example, there's a lot of debate about how, you know, what's the risk of a much, much more of an active hurricane season, right, because of climate change. Much less confidence. But those are very expensive events. So, you have to kind of look at the cost of the potential events and the probabilities, and sort of do some risk, risk assessment.

Naomi Parness
Nate, in your time as MP, you've worked on animal welfare and climate change initiatives that you feel will help reduce the spread of disease and potential pandemics. What more do you think needs to be done? And I'm curious, actually, what you're hearing from your own constituents. Do they think this is where the money should be spent?

Nathaniel Erskine-Smith
So, what I hear from constituents overwhelmingly is challenges associated with the current pandemic—and certainly, between March and June, it was an overwhelming onslaught of emails and phone calls, whether it was small business owners or individuals who lost their employment. And as we look to potential recovery efforts in the longer term, I certainly feel that a lot of correspondents from constituents who want us to tackle climate change and maintain a climate lens to those efforts. I haven't received a great deal of correspondence about preventing a future pandemic, which is all the more reason why I think the UN report in this kind of conversation is really critical to highlight this issue, highlight ways of addressing future pandemics, and making sure that people are writing to their Members of Parliament and writing into Cabinet Ministers and calling for action and having these conversations among one another to raise awareness and education.

My, my own work in Parliament has not so much been focused on pandemic risk to date. So, I've certainly helped found an animal welfare caucus and focused on animal welfare efforts because I think animals should be treated humanely, and with basic respect and compassion, because they think, feel, and love, and the science is there—we just haven't caught up as a matter of our cultural practices. And I say cultural practices, we can point to wet markets, but we can also point to industrial agriculture here in Canada, and the United States as well, and beyond. So, I think this is an area where, just as World Animal Protection is taking these issues seriously, our animal welfare caucus can take these issues seriously as well.

On climate action, I've certainly been vocal as well. I introduced net-zero legislation, helped call a climate emergency debate in the last Parliament, and I will maintain that focus on a green, just recovery, clean transition, however we want to frame it. Clearly, tackling climate change needs to be central to any recovery effort and public stimulus on the way outside of this pandemic.

In terms of what more needs to be done, I do think, and I would come back to that push for government to engage in a more serious risk assessment with respect to future pandemics, but I would also say we should also reflect on our own practices as far as it goes. It's easy for Canadians or Canada to say, well, this happened in China, and oh if they just closed down these markets in a way that they'd done post-SARS, maybe this wouldn't have happened. And yes, there are international efforts that have to be undertaken by our government alongside others. But I think we should also reflect on our own behaviours, our own habits, our own contribution to, whether it's the wildlife trade or industrial agriculture, and say how can we change our behaviours to reduce deforestation, to better address climate change, and reduce the impact of climate change, to better strengthen biodiversity to—well, you know, what was really telling from the UN report is they highlight unsustainable human activities. And the number one activity is the increasing human demand for animal protein. And whether that is agricultural intensification or the wildlife trade, we as consumers need to change their behaviours. And, and governments need to make it easier and help us along the way to change those kinds of behaviours.

Naomi Parness
Nate said it, you know, it would be easy to have just done that and maybe not prevent this all, but even my own kids who are young, you know, 8 and 11, are saying well, you know, couldn't they have just, like, there must have been a simple sort of solution, in terms of just closing it down in the past. Because as you said, this could have prevented it. What do you have to say, then, in terms of the Canadian policy approach, and what the government now needs to do ,and it, you know, the part nationally and internationally´ what do all governments need to do to curb the spread of pandemic disease? What can they immediately do?

Melissa Matlow
So, we're asking....

Naomi Parness
Because Nate mentioned—and I should point out that Nate mentioned, I mean, we don't have the same type of situation here, right? We don't have the wet market. So, what can they do here? What would you like to see them actually do to prevent this, in terms of the wet markets and, and the way that you're talking about wildlife being treated?

Melissa Matlow
Sure, well, we're asking them to bring this issue to the G20, there's a, a leader leadership summit in November. We think, you know, the, the world's largest 20 largest economies have the influence and power to move this world into action. It really does need to be a global problem, problem, even if we don't have the exact same type of wildlife market here in Canada, they do exist around the world, not just in China. So, we need countries to encourage a stronger ban. I don't think regulations are working. And here in Canada, we should also play a role in looking how what we curb our role in that international trade ,and facilitating the demand for those products, the supply as well. Our, you know, our wildlife is poached for some of these products. Here in Canada, black bears, for instance, are poached for the bear bile industry and sold around the world. We've seen them in, in medicine shops here in Canada. And we need to educate consumers. Because a lot of people don't know—as Nate said, you know, we have a role as well to educate people and share information and, and to make sure our own habits aren't, you know, perpetuating this risky trade. There's a thriving exotic pet industry here in Canada, and there's very little controls. We'd like to see Canada, you know, harmonize provincial regulations to, to reduce the, the risks that are, that are that exist in in our current wildlife trade. Nate also mentioned the fur farms. There's been COVID-19 outbreaks in the Netherlands, in Spain as well. And we have a thriving fur farm business here in Canada. It's something we've gotta look at, because COVID-19 spread like wildfire in those markets. It's causing Netherlands to phase out that industry. So, you know, it deserves to be a conversation. We'd like to see this as part of Canada's pandemic prevention strategy.

Naomi Parness
I'm going to get to the audience questions in a minute. But David, I also want you to comment on that. And I guess you're going to come from an interesting perspective because, as I said, you're in the States. But what can you highlight some of the steps we need to take in North America and internationally, to help reduce the risk of major disruptive events like pandemics?

Dr. David Gold
Yeah, I mean, again, I think a multi-faceted attack is needed, you know. So first, first of all, critical infrastructure systems have to be stress-tested. You have to identify vulnerabilities. And you have to shore those up. The latter is really part of a broader adaptation strategy, and it requires a better understanding of the linkages between climate change, the environment, and the subsequent increase in the threat of new disease pathways that open up as a result of that interaction. I think one thing we've learned in meteorology—I don't think, this may not be common knowledge, in fact, it almost certainly isn't—but because atmospheric science, it's so much more than just weather, right? We have to worry about—think about what we have to do to build a model to predict the weather. We have to worry about interactions between the atmosphere, the underlying ocean system, the ice, the land surface. It's an essentially, it's an inherently multi-disciplinary effort. So, to attack this problem that we're talking about today, scientists from many different disciplines, including climatologists, biologists, and wildlife specialists like Melissa, and even AI experts, need to work together to figure this out.

I also think this is a fundamentally big data problem. You know, here at IBM, we're fortunate to have built some really great platform systems, like IBM's Pairs, to bring together all of these diverse datasets that cover, that span the environment, and, and, you know, the biosphere, and model the interactions between them. We need to model these interactions, so that we get better insights than the insights that come from these exercises. It goes back to risk management. It can inform, we can basically assess the risk of, you know, new types of diseases cropping up in different places, and then make decisions accordingly at the local provincial and national levels. And of course, beyond adaptation, we simply need faster action, you know, to, to reduce emissions. Because ultimately, this is the best way to mitigate human-created climate change. And faster action to reduce our, our, you know, the shocks that we're inducing and we're producing in the environment that, you know, that that open up these new disease pathways

Naomi Parness
Melissa, I know you had a comment, and then I want to get to the audience question, there. So, Melissa?

Melissa Matlow
Sure, I'll be quick, because I have to take this segue on data. Because with the wildlife trade, we virtually have none. You only need a permit to import or export species that are on the Convention on the International Trade and Endangered Species. Now, one might stop and ask, why are we trading endangered species in the first place? And I think that's an important question to ask. But for the vast majority of commercially traded wildlife, there are no permits needed, there's no data, there's no monitoring, there's not even comprehensive pathogen checks. So definitely, we need to start with a place of knowledge and data is very important in solving this problem.

QUESTION & ANSWER

Naomi Parness
So, here, we're going to take an audience question now. This is the question is from Jay. Can they comment on how effective land management crosses all three, wildlife, climate change, and politics? Nate let's go to you, since we haven't heard from you.

Nathaniel Erskine-Smith
Yeah, so I mean, I'm not as familiar with all of the land use management practices that the federal government undertakes. I know there are, certainly, there's a focus on—through Environment and Climate Change Canada—focus on preserving wildlife, and there are requirements as a matter of land use management there. I know too that anyone who thinks through challenges associated with climate change will quickly realize that reforestation, deforestation, is an important part of the picture there as well, which comes down to land use management, as well. But I, I, I leave to Melissa or David to speak a little bit more to land use management, potentially. I guess that what I would leave people with, in some ways, is not only looking at the land use management per se, but also how our, our activities contribute to a negative impact upon land use.

So, when we look at deforestation as an example, which obviously, climate change problem, but also obviously encroaches on habitat and leads to greater, greater interactions between humans and animals, and therefore greater risk. I think we have to look at the underlying activities that contribute to these problems, and that's agriculture, that is logging in some cases, around the world. But it's I think in Canada we're lucky to have some of the institutions that we do have through Environment Canada and through Health Canada, and not everywhere around the world has that in place. And even when we look at regulating wild markets as an example, the UN report says, well some experts have called for a ban, and other experts have instead called for these markets to be strictly regulated. But governance frameworks are so important, and where we see poor governance frameworks around the world, then those strict regulations if, even if they're on paper, they may not be enforced, and they may not be effective. So, it not only demands strong rules, but it also demands governance, institutions that are able to enforce those rules in a serious way, in Canada but around the world.

Naomi Parness
Melissa, maybe we'll go to you. We are starting to run out of time—amazingly how fast that hour goes by but—but why don't you answer that question, as well?

Melissa Matlow
Sure, I mean, it would be great to see Canada put more effort into protecting important wildlife habitat areas. Deforestation is not only contributing to climate change, but it's also contributing to this other driver of pandemics, the wildlife trade., And the more people are able to encroach on wildlife habitat, the more we're in contact with these potentially, you know, you know, deadly diseases that could spread. So, I think what we've learned from this this discussion is, is that we really need to get to all these different routes of the problem . It's complex, and there's a great opportunity to develop in a better way.

Naomi Parness
David?

Dr. David Gold
Well, I mean, I think we've hit a lot of the key points. You know, land management was, improving the way farmers manage the land was key in preventing another dust bowl, like we had here in the states in the 30's. You know, we've seen a big increase, it seems, in some areas of massive wildfires. And that's in no small part due to sub-optimal land management practices. Whenever you clear-cut a forest, if you do that over enough of the earth, it may actually have a slight cooling effect. Because when you basically lighten the surface of the earth and some more radiation goes bounces off and goes back to space. But you also create areas that are drier, you know, they don't—and they're not as absorbent, they don't have the plant material to absorb co2. And then, as we've discussed ad nauseam, you, you disrupt those wildlife habitats in ways that, you know, put, increase the risks of spillover of these diseases from potential carriers to humans. So, you can see all of these linkages that we've, I think, hit multiple times in this discussion.

Naomi Parness
Thank you all so much. I want to take a look at that poll. The poll question was: Should Canada work on a pandemic prevention strategy that considers animal welfare and climate change as key components? Obviously, you guys did a really good job of convincing everyone, because the poll is at 100, so everyone agrees. Nate, you can take that back to the government now. You can tell them that there's scientific evidence that this is what people are interested in. But I do think it's, I've learned a lot. I think everyone who's listening has learned a lot, and I think we all, you know, as I said, it's hard to think about the next when you're still struggling so much to survive through the one that we're in. But I think you all made some really interesting and important points about why it is so important to think about the next. So, this was a really interesting discussion. I personally was honoured very much to be here, and I thank you all for being here, and I'm going to throw it back to Antoinette.

Antoinette Tummillo
Thank you. I would now like to welcome Parmen Darsandu to deliver the appreciation remarks. He's CEO of Santha Technologies Inc.

Note of Appreciation by Parmin Darsandu, CEO Santha Technologies, Inc.
Thank you, Antoinette. Well, that was a very insightful discussion. First, I congratulate the Empire Club for hosting a discussion on the potential root causes of this pandemic. The intersection of wildlife habitat and climate change are extremely important areas to study to prevent the next pandemic, or at least predict and respond better. So, Antoinette, thank you for you and your team for hosting this event. Our panelists Melissa, David, and Nathaniel, thank you for your thought-provoking ideas. As a society, we need to allocate resources for prevention, preparedness, and response for pandemics. Again, my appreciation for your thoughts. Naomi, thanks for moderating. I'm always fascinated as we've quickly adapted to working remotely, and you did a masterful job moderating this virtual event. Thank you.

Naomi Parness
Thank you.

Parmin Darsandu
I'd like to just take a minute to introduce Santha Technologies and gettingbacktowork.com. Our team was built and launched on automated software solution to do active health screening of employees, customers, and workplace visitors, and to do rapid response contact tracing for those same employees, customers, and workplace visitors. All public health agencies are strongly recommending health screening. We've automated it and made that process much more cost-effective. Health screening and contact tracing are especially important, as we prepare our workplaces for the interaction between COVID-19 and the cold and flu season. In fact, most of our customers were doing paper-based health screening. And with Santha, it's easier, faster, and gives you rapid response contact tracing capabilities. Our solution doesn't require any software download, doesn't use GPS geolocation, or Bluetooth. Our solution is a web-based application that can be used on any device anywhere with an internet connection. Please visit www.gettingbacktowork.com to learn more about our solution and how we can help your business open and stay open safely. Thank you.

Concluding Remarks by Antoinette Tummillo
Thank you. On behalf of the Empire Club, I want to thank you all for being with us today. David, Nate, Melissa, wow, lots for us to take away. Lots for us to think about. Lots to think about how each of us can help and do something about this. And Melissa, Naomi, you did a wonderful job drawing up the story so we can understand it—although sometimes they did get a little technical on us— but you did a great job of drawing out the story so we common folk can understand. Anyways, thanks again. I want to thank everybody, all of our guests for joining us today, and members. And we have another terrific event planned tomorrow with another great panel, and it's all about how COVID is affecting women from a financial standpoint, from a mental health standpoint, and the societal shifts we're seeing. So, that's at noon tomorrow. So, please join us for that event. And with that, this meeting is now adjourned. So, thank you all.

Naomi Parness
Thank you.