A Strategy for Coping with Natural Disasters

First, the world's climate is changing and so, of course, is Canada's. The reasons why this is happening are still open to debate and much controversy. The greenhouse effect caused by man-made emissions is a possible culprit, or it could be the result of a natural recurring cycle. Whatever the cause, this much is certain: extreme weather events are putting more Canadians at risk.

Another reason the effects of catastrophe are more serious is we have become an urban nation. Over 16 million of us now live in towns and cities. We live clustered together and this increases the impact of a single event. In some municipalities, the infrastructure is aging or operating beyond the capacity it was designed for. For example, the storm sewer systems in some cities can't even handle an ordinary rain storm, let alone a deluge.

Of course we're getting much better at predicting the weather, which is helpful in avoiding its disastrous effects. But sometimes, warnings aren't enough. Perhaps the most famous example of that occurred right here in Canada, just after Confederation.

In 1869 Lieutenant S.M. Saxby of the Royal Navy made a startling predication. No, he didn't have a crystal ball; instead he looked at the moon. Lieutenant Saxby knew that on October 5, 1869 the moon would make its monthly passage closest to the earth in combination with the new moon phase on that same day. He warned that on that day, there would be a severe storm accompanied by a high tide.

Now, most schoolchildren can tell you that the highest tides in the world are found in the Bay of Fundy. And that's where a hurricane rolled in on the evening of October 4, 1869. Saxby was only four hours off. The enormous storm surge lifted the tide in Moncton nearly two metres above previous records. The flooding killed numerous people, wiped out homes and sank scores of boats. It went down In history as the great Saxby Gale.

Today we have the Canadian Hurricane Centre in Halifax doing the work of Lieutenant Saxby. But the confluence of events he identified remains a threat especially since many communities in the Bay of Fundy area are protected only by the earth dykes constructed by the original Acadian settlers.

Violent weather .isn't the only natural hazard that threatens Canada. It may surprise you to 'know that Canada has experienced five :major earthquakes 'in the past 20 years. All of them measured at' least 6 .0 on the Richter scale. Now, the reason you may not have :heard about them is that, fortunately, all those quakes hit remote areas. But imagine if -a quake that size hit Vancouver. The-economic impact would be about $30 billion and the cost-in human lives would be unthinkable. And seismologists say that "the big one" will hit Vancouver one day. It's simply a matter of when, not if.

Earthquakes also spawn tsunamis or tidal waves. Not many Canadians had given them much thought until the great earthquake hit Alaska back in -1964. It generated a series of giant waves that radiated out from the epicentre and roared across the Pacific' at an incredible speed It took only a few hours :before they started slamming into the coast of Vancouver Island. It was sheer luck that nobody there was killed, but damage ran into the millions. In Port Alberni alone 260 homes were ,destroyed. Hawaii wasn't so lucky; 159 people were killed.

At the time, most scientists concluded that it was unlikely to happen again. Now we know better. Geophysicists now say those killer waves, could be born much closer to home in the seabed just off our West Coast. In fact, they have concluded that it has already happened at least one other time.

The first clue can be found in the oral histories passed down through generations of native peoples on Vancouver Island. They tell of a great shaking, and of a giant wave that destroyed a village at Pachena Bay a few hundred years ago. The second clue is found in historical records on the other side of the Pacific. Officials of the Japanese government reported that on January 26 in the year 1700 a large tsunami battered their coast. From that evidence and the geological record, scientists have concluded that this was one of the world's biggest quakes. It must have measured at least 9.0 on the Richter scale. It occurred off our West Coast. Imagine what that would do to the City of Victoria or Vancouver today.

Earthquakes and tsunamis also threaten our East Coast. And the evidence is quite recent. In 1929, an earthquake measuring 7.2 on the Richter scale rumbled beneath the Grand Banks and produced a tsunami that completely destroyed the town of Port-au-Bras on the Burin Peninsula.

But all is not doom and gloom. I do have some good news to report. First, Canadians should be very proud of the way we respond to natural disasters. The federal and provincial governments, the insurance community, our emergency services, the Red Cross and, when needed, the military are on the scene of a major catastrophe almost immediately. Insurance coverage, government assistance, and just plain old community spirit promptly helps people rebuild their homes and their lives. We can all take comfort in the fact that our response and recovery programmes are among the best in the world. And so are the professionals and volunteers who answer the call.

But, while Canada does a great job responding to natural disasters and rebuilding afterward, we have a lot of work to do when it comes to preventing disaster. Of course we can't tame nature, but with foresight, planning and timely investment we can save more lives and property.

That brings me to the concept of disaster mitigation. Canada has some great examples that show how the concept of mitigation can work.

Back in 1954, Hurricane Hazel roared up the American East Coast and dumped a huge amount of rain on the Toronto area in less than 24 hours. That unleashed torrential floods that tore down the Don, the Humber and the Credit River valleys. Entire neighbourhoods were obliterated. Eighty-one people were killed and 4,000 families were forced from their homes. It was a terrible catastrophe.

A farsighted Ontario government learned some important lessons and vowed never to let it happen again. A series of flood control dams and channels were built. Houses were moved off the floodplains and rebuilding was restricted to areas out of harm's way.

Or consider the lessons to be drawn from the Winnipeg Floodway. In the 1960s, the people of Manitoba knew from bitter experience that the Red River would burst its banks periodically and overwhelm the City of Winnipeg. So the provincial and federal governments got together and built the floodway, which is basically a giant ditch around the city. It cost $63 million, a staggering amount at the time. But it proved to be a bargain.

Since it was built, the floodway has been used to reduce flood loss on 17 different occasions. When the great Manitoba Flood of 1997 hit, the floodway diverted almost 60,000 cubic feet of water every second, passing it safely around the city. As a result, whole neighbourhoods were spared. And hundreds of millions of dollars were saved.

That $63 million turned out to be a very good investment. Mark Twain once said: "Everyone talks about the weather but nobody does anything about it." Well, here's an example of mitigation that proves him wrong.

On September 7, 1991, Calgary was pounded by a severe hailstorm. Hailstones the size of golf balls blasted homes, businesses and cars, destroyed crops and injured livestock. At the time it was the costliest natural disaster in Canadian history. The final bill to insurers was $350 million. And it wasn't just a one-time event. Every summer over 40 major hailstorms rumble through the skies over Alberta and Saskatchewan. During the 1980s they caused about a billion dollars in damage.

The property and casualty insurance industry stepped forward in 1996 and- provided funding for an annual hail suppression programme in Central Alberta. Now, when a major storm is approaching that appears to contain all of the necessary atmospheric conditions for damaging hail, aircraft are dispatched to seed the storm with particles of silver iodide. These particles create small, harmless hailstones in place of the large stones that would otherwise have developed. In 1999, our aircraft flew more missions than ever before and as a result, according to our records, there were no hailstorms that cost the insurance industry more than $200,000 and there was, in general, greatly reduced damage to the City of Calgary.

We can also soften the blow from earthquakes. A few years before the hotel we're in today was opened, another was built in Tokyo. The architect was the great Frank Lloyd Wright, who designed the foundation specifically to absorb earthquake shock.

The Imperial opened in 1922. The very next year, Japan was hit by the most devastating earthquake in its history. One hundred and forty thousand people died. Hundreds of thousands of homes collapsed or were burned to the ground by the fires that followed. Over half of Tokyo's brick buildings and about 10 per cent of its reinforced concrete structures were reduced to rubble. The Imperial Hotel emerged undamaged. That story helps inspire efforts to strengthen and enforce our building codes. And, I'm pleased to report, it's an effort that's now resulting in stronger and more resilient buildings.

I've outlined a few examples of how we can protect ourselves from violent weather and earthquakes. But there is so much more we can do together as a country. It's time Canada had a national strategy involving all three levels of government to protect our communities from the threats we know are all too real.

That is why the Insurance Bureau of Canada, on behalf of the property and casualty insurance industry, is championing the establishment of a Natural Disaster Reduction plan--a national programme to save lives, property and money.

Let me briefly review what we are proposing:

The Insurance Bureau of Canada is asking all three levels of government to contribute a total of up to $750 million over five years to create a Natural Disaster Protection Fund. This Fund could exist on its own, or more likely as a component of a renewed national infrastructure programme. These resources would support projects identified by local communities to upgrade infrastructure, and would make neighbourhoods more resilient to damage caused by severe weather and earthquakes.

This programme should be considered an investment-a very good investment. Right now, the Government of Canada is spending about $500 million a year to respond to and rebuild after disasters. It simply makes economic sense to cut that annual bill. As the old saying goes: "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure."

A suggested model for the Natural Disaster Protection Fund is the federal/provincial/municipal "Canada Works" infrastructure programme, which was introduced by the current federal government and ran from 1993 to 1997. All three levels of government shared the costs, but the specific initiatives came from the local level.

We embrace that model because local communities know the strengths and weaknesses of their infrastructure and are in the best position to identify the most effective projects.

Right now there is no such money available. And, just as worrisome, there is no national governmental body where good ideas can be exchanged. This is another flaw in our disaster management systems that must be corrected.

The second part of our plan would augment the existing Disaster Recovery Financial Assistance Arrangements with the provinces by 15 per cent. This would mean that when we respond to a flood, for example, we could spend that extra 15 cents on the dollar to study how to prevent that flood from happening again or mitigating the effects if it does. The United States has had such a programme in place for many years.

The final element of the plan is to create a culture of preparedness. A "culture of preparedness" is a fancy way of saying that we need to start thinking about the dangers we face and how to mitigate or lessen their impact. All levels of government should make disaster preparedness a cornerstone of government policy by requiring that future public works include an analysis on how the projects will make Canada's communities more resilient to future natural disasters.

We know that what we are proposing requires a major public commitment. And we are also quite aware that in the run-up to the federal budget each year, there will be many governments, groups and individuals tugging at Paul Martin's sleeve asking for money. So it's worth emphasising that the Natural Disaster Reduction Plan is an investment that will have real and measurable returns.

Of course we're not just talking dollars and cents here. At its heart, this issue is about saving lives. It's protecting people's property, their personal treasures and their neighbourhoods.

Above all, it requires a national consensus and a national effort. We have mustered the political will before. During the '50s and '60s we came together as a country to build a social safety net that protects our most vulnerable citizens. It's'a national achievement we can all take pride in. It made us a stronger, more united country.

It's now time once again to rally that spirit and put in place a national protection scheme that will stretch from coast to coast defending lives, protecting communities and helping build a stronger Canada.

Noah didn't wait for the flood to build the ark. Let's not wait for more disasters before we are compelled to act. Thank you very much.

The appreciation of the meeting was expressed by George L. Cooke, President and CEO, The Dominion of Canada General Insurance Company and Immediate Past President, The Empire Club of Canada.