The Conflicting Interests of China, Japan and Russia in the Far East

PRESIDENT: Gentlemen, at no time in the world's history has the "Law of the Neighbourhood" been so evident in its operation as at the present time. The radio, telephone, aviation and other means of rapid communication and transport have brought even the most remote nations almost momentarily into touch with one another and clearly demonstrates that no nation or people can live to themselves, their problems, commercial, social and cultural being so interlocking. Many centuries of unrest and strife clearly demonstrate this trait and none more than the conflicting interests of China, Japan and Russia in -the Far East, which, it can be truthfully said, is the problem of the whole world.

Mr. Rodomar, our guest-speaker today is well qualified to discuss this great problem. He was educated in the Military Academy at Odessa and served his country in the World War. He fought against the Communists with the White Army and at one time was a member of the Allied Military Intelligence in Moscow. He was later attached to the Foreign Mission which enabled him to travel widely in the Far East and to study intimately the clash of Japanese, Russian and other foreign interests. This study he has continued to pursue while in the employment of corporations which he has represented in the East sand the Far East.

Mr. Rodomar is a British subject, now living in Montreal. I have the pleasure to introduce to the members of The Empire Club of Canada, their guests and the radio audience, Mr. O. W. Rodomar, who will address us on the subject, "The Conflicting Interests of China, Japan and Russia in the Far East." Mr. Rodomar. (Applause.)

MR. O. W. RODOMAR: Mr. President, Gentlemen: I deeply appreciate the honour accorded to me to address the Empire Club of Canada in Toronto.

When, last summer, the Japanese Government resumed hostilities in China, the Japanese Foreign Minister, Koki Hirota, cynically informed the governments of the world that the intention of Japan at the moment was to capture the six northern provinces, including Inner Mongolia. The governments of Europe were very busy with problems of their own and were left absolutely helpless in this new major development in the Far East. Nevertheless, the President of the United States, some months after the resumption of hostilities, in his Chicago speech aroused the outraged public opinion throughout the world, with the result that we are to understand that a nine-power Conference is being convened in the City of Brussels on October l0th. It is to be hoped that the deliberations of that Assembly will result in something decidedly more tangible than the recent experience we have had in the case of Italy versus Ethiopa. True enough, the President of the United States is ably supported by his Secretary of State and it is now the question of whether or not the United States of America will take an active part in the deliberations in Brussels.

Well, now the question is, what will they deliberate about? No one can forecast the final results of this Conference, but we do know it is the intention of the powers to discuss the ways and means of immediately ending the hostilities in the Far East. It may be that the Japanese will welcome such a suggestion because to all intents and purposes they have already accomplished or almost accomplished what they went after last August. But what about China? Is China to be ,left to the mercy of the foreign aggressor, China, a defenceless peace-loving nation. Are we to understand that Japan is to incorporate the six fertile provinces, without the slightest protest on the part of the powers, or even with their blessing and permission? And, if that be so, what then? What are the Japanese aims, after all? What is Japan intending to do? Will she be satisfied with the six provinces in addition to the state of Manchuokuo? I, for one, do not believe it. I have certain reasons to disbelieve the sincerity, and it is an odd word to use, of the Japanese foreign policy. But, assuming that they are satisfied to retain their present gains, what again, about China? Is China to submit to this conquest of some, I understand, hundred thousand square miles of her territory?

Those are the problems that naturally will be dealt with at the forthcoming Conference at Brussels and the present situation in the Far East puts me- very strangely in mind of an obsession the former Emperor of Germany used to have, the obsession which he called "the yellow peril." He went from court to court, from government to government, preaching about the yellow peril. The Kaiser, undoubtedly, did not mean only Japan, but he meant Japan and Japanese-dominated China.

Recently, while delving in the available material on the subject of the Far Eastern situation, certain contemporary historians came across a very interesting conjecture. That conjecture dealt with a programme devised and approved by the Japanese statesmen, forty odd years ago, and having to do with the Japanese expansion upon the mainland of Asia. The succeeding governments of Japan have proved the existence of such a plan, beyond a shadow of doubt, and when you consider, that only last summer, ostensibly fed up of the domination by the military clique, the Emperor of Japan invited a cultured, liberal, well-informed young civilian, Prince Konoye to head the government, upon the advice of the last remaining elder statesman, Prince Saionji, the world breathed a sigh of relief, because, there was no question in the minds of the Chancellories of Europe but that the advent of the civilian government to power in Japan would bring the moderation of the Japanese foreign policy throughout the Far East and more particularly towards China and Russia.

What do we see? This liberal, cultured civilian gentleman lost no time in throwing his armies in the most unprecedented manner upon defenceless, China. That only goes to prove the existence of the plan I have just referred to, and also, that whether Japan is ruled by a military clique or by a civilian liberal government, her aims are identical.

It is well worth our while -to examine this Japanese situation, these Japanese aims, in the light of the last forty odd years and, with your permission, I propose to do so briefly.

Japan made its debut in world affairs in 1896, when she declared war on China. That war was quickly won and the result was, that Japan gained the Island of Formosa, an island almost uninhabitable and certainly not rich in natural resources, and also the southern portion of the Liaoutung Peninsula. Acting in concert, Germany, France and Russia brought pressure to bear upon Japan and made her abandon the profitable part of the spoils, viz. the Liaoutung Peninsula, which was subsequently incorporated by Russia. In other words, Japan was left with nothing more than a great deal of prestige and the Island of Formosa.

Her next venture took place during the Boxer Rebellion. Japan received as a result of her participation certain concessions. The next step was a European Alliance. Incidentally, it was touch and go, whether Japan would ally herself with Russia or with England. Lord Lansdowne won and that alliance was shortly afterward followed by the RussoJapanese War of 1904 and '05. This war was also won by Japan, but what did Japan get as a result? Again a great deal of prestige. In fact, she became one of the world's greatest powers, but in point of territory she received the sovereign state of Korea, already over populated and not at all rich in natural resources. Russia also conceded her earlier gains of the southern tip of the Liaoutung Peninsula.

In 1914 Japan joined the Allies. As a result of the Peace Treaty of Versailles, she secured the Port of Kiaochau and several insignificant islands, but during the war, Japan saw an opportunity to jump on China and served in 1915 her famous "Twenty-one Points" in a form of an ultimatum. Luckily for China, the Allied Government brought pressure to bear and made Japan withdraw.

Then an excellent opportunity presented itself. The Allied Government's having decided to take a hand against the Bolsheviks, sent troops, ostensibly to guard the Siberian Railway, and while the American Government sent a brigade of infantry, the British a brigade of artillery, etc., Japan sent 80,000 soldiers and immediately occupied all the strategic points in the maritime provinces of Siberia. But once again, she was made to withdraw as a result of the intervention of the U.S.A.

It then appeared to the Japanese statesmen that their European alliances were not very profitable. Japanese population continued to grow and now reached something like 70 million. Something had to be done and when, therefore, in r 928, the second extension of the Japanese Alliance with Great Britain, or rather the third, came up for renewal, it was decided, by a mutual agreement, not to renew it. Japan, in 1928 and 1929, for the first time in many years, felt able to pursue her, own way in her own manner, the manner which is known as "fishing in muddy waters" and I must say, that so far, she has done very well. Her first step was to take Manchuria. Her next, having been in the meantime greatly criticized by the League of Nations, was to withdraw from the League, thus allowing herself an absolutely free field of action.

While Japan was slowly annexing these six northern provinces, the United States Government, having departed from its almost traditional stand, recognized Russia in 1933 and I, for one, feel that there was an understanding between the two governments based upon the Far Eastern situation.

Japan has, as I said before, something over 70 million of people. There are two ways in which Japan could help herself. One is to encourage emigration into the less populated areas of the world. What are they? They are the United States of America, the British Dominions of Canada, New Zealand and Australia, as well as Siberia. Her other alternative is the encouragement of exportation of her manufactured goods. In the first instance, the borders of the countries I have just mentioned, have been closed to her. In the second instance, the exportation of the Japanese manufactured goods has been constantly restricted. Feeling that the right to expand, the right of development has been denied to her, Japan chose the only alternative left to her, namely to attack the weakest link in the chain surrounding her, and inasmuch gas the weakest link is China, China has been attacked.

While extending her sphere of influence west, north and south, Japan came to Inner Mongolia and therefore face to face with Russia in Outer Mongolia. The Soviets recognize the danger of the yellow peril, even if the Czar didn't. For a number, of years they have taken the steps to fortify their borders with Manchuria, rebuild the fortress of Vladivostok, establish bases throughout Eastern Siberia, move a very formidable army there and establish a powerful air force, able to fly to Japan in a matter of two hours. But Russia, recognizing the danger of the Japanese aggression and the fact that Japanese military strategists feel that the maritime provinces of Siberia are absolutely essential to them, in order that they may maintain their foothold in China proper, is not anxious to fight Japan alone. In the first place, I will say this for the Soviet Government: they are sincerely desirous of peace, but in the face of the Japanese provocation there can be no alternative left to them. And obviously it is easier to fight together with China than to fight alone. That, undoubtedly, has already occurred to the Soviet leaders. They would perhaps be glad to join forces with China, but what about the alliance Japan signed with Germany last winter? It is a well known fact if Russia attacks Japan, Germany will attack Russia.

That is the position of Russia at the moment. In addition to this, Russia's internal situation leaves much to be desired. There was some improvement evident two years ago. In fact this improvement in the internal situation was first noted with Hitler's advent to power. At the same time Russia made the necessary overtures to France, to resume the defensive alliance they had had prior to the Great War. These overtures were welcomed by France because Hitler is as dangerous to France as he is to Russia. Behind this lay the obvious desire to reestablish not only the defensive alliance between Russia and France, but the old "entente cordiale" including England, in the face of the menace of -the two Fascist states, Germany and Italy.

England was more than willing to encourage such possibility but shoe demanded guarantees. She mistrusted the Soviet Regime and the best way the Soviet government could prove its good intentions to England, was by instituting a series of liberal reforms at home and you gentlemen, in the last two year's or so, have no doubt often opened your newspapers to find a new reform calculated to improve social, economic or religious conditions in Russia. That was a matter of daily news.

Then, the obvious reactions set in. Now, the first reaction was unimportant. I will briefly deal with it. It concerned the old Bolsheviks. They naturally opposed these reforms. Here they were, the builders of the only communistic state in the world, and yet that state under the leadership of Stalin was rapidly abandoning the communistic principles and becoming almost a bourgeois country where people could live and enjoy life. Stalin's henchmen were only too glad to gather these gentlemen together and deal with them according to what in Russia is considered proper. You all know their fate, except this, that they couldn't possibly be accused of being Communists because Russia, to all intents and purposes was still a communistic state, and their claim was that they were Communists, so the Government pinned on them such charges as espionage, sabotage, Trotskyism and so on.

The other reaction was infinitely more important. It concerned the unrest among the people. They were, given better living conditions and they naturally wanted more. In spite of the tremendous suffering they had experienced during the last twenty years there was still a spark of love of freedom, independence of spirit left in them and they mistrusted Stalin. They demanded, as I said, greater reforms, and the quicker the better. Such unwarranted independence of spirit on the part of the Russian people affronted Stalin. It is not a case of what the Russian people wanted, it was rather what Stalin wanted them to have. That is the inevitable way of a dictatorship. He became alarmed at the knowledge that there was still, as I said, a spark of life left in the people; that they still could and did oppose him. The result of this discovery was a complete turn about face. Once more Stalin resorted to terror.

While dealing with the second reaction, it was discovered by the secret police that certain Soviet Generals were involved in a conspiracy with such states as Germany and Japan. Whether this was true or not no one knows. I, for one, will not venture an opinion. But their crime in the eyes of Stalin must have been great enough for him to utterly destroy the best of his generals and reduce the Army from the position of pre-eminence it occupied into a position of secondary importance. That made a profound impression upon the Powers of the World. For instance Japan saw her chance and once more attacked China. France and England ceased to count Russia as an ally worth having. The Soviet Government, fearing that its position in Europe may soon become untenable, has been doing everything in its power, not even hesitating at such old tricks as deliberate provocation, to hold its so recently acquired friendship in Europe.

The letter of Chamberlain to Mussolini didn't help the possibility of a rapprochement between Italy and England on the one hand and England and Germany on the other. Such a move had to include France. The Bolsheviks in turn, were prepared no matter at what cost to stick with France and England, in the face of the menace from Germany and Japan. They are still doing everything possible to improve their relations with France and England but I, for one do not feel that the Bolsheviks have anything to fear.

Let us analyse this further. Supposing Japan wins the wax in the Far' East. That means that the foreign investments of various nations will be driven out, just as they already have been driven out from Manchuria, although Japan in conquering Manchuria announced that the principle of the "open door" would be maintained. It is no longer maintained. The foreign devils, as the Japanese call Europeans, will be driven out because Japan will not be content with the subjugation of only six provinces, she will want the whole of China. Will it be in the interests of France and England and of the United States of America to have Japan drive them out of China, or in the face of such a possibility, will they guarantee to Russia her borders against Germany, in which case Russia will be free to follow her plans in the Far East?

That is the position. Everyone knows, and Hitler certainly makes no secret of his plans, that he wants the Ukraine and the Baltic States. Recently, during the state visit of Mussolini to Hitler, one of the things that was being discussed was the formation of the Four-Power Pact, consisting of France, England, Italy and Germany directed against Russia. So far Hitler has succeeded in impressing only Mussolini, but supposing, that such a bloc will become a reality and Hitler will then undoubtedly attack Russia. Do not make a mistake, gentlemen. He does not want old German colonies back. All the talk about colonies is to maintain his claim to more territory. That territory is the Ukraine and the Baltic States. Supposing such possibility takes place. Supposing Germany is enriched by the possession of the Ukraine and the Baltic States, what will happen? Do you think that France and England will welcome a neighbour with 150 million people, a warlike nation, constantly in belligerent mood, and a country absolutely self-sufficient, because the Ukraine means twenty of the richest provinces of Russia with 40 million people. I hardly think that France and England will welcome such a contingency, even though they may obtain respite from war. There is the whole crux of the matter: on the one hand the possibility that the victorious Japan will drive them out of China and on the other the presence of the most powerful neighbour with a mission to dominate the world.

Gentlemen, that is the situation in the Far East today. One cannot begin to discuss any political problem no matter how remote the country without involving all of the major European and Asiatic nations. May I close with a fervent hope that the forthcoming conference in Brussels will deal with the subject of the Japanese ultimate ambitions in the Far East justly and fairly. Thank you. (Applause)

PRESIDENT HARCOURT: Mr. Rodomar, we are indeed very grateful to you for this most interesting and instructive address. We leave here today with a greater and a cleaner knowledge of this world problem and our prayer is, may it soon be solved.

On behalf of The Empire Club of Canada and your radio audience, I offer you our sincere thanks.

(Applause.)